Big Peck's Cineflex Awards Edition VI: Oscar Winner Predictions

Last year I gave my predictions for 11 categories. I then predicted that I would accurately predict 8 of the 11 categories correctly. My prediction came true. I only got 8 right. And I got a lot of the big ones wrong. I didn't even get Best Picture right last year. But last year was a shit show. Not the La La Land being announced instead of Moonlight shit show, but a shit show nonetheless. This year doesn't seem to be any different. The lack of diversity - especially when it comes to non-white men, or any women - is still amazing. And I really only watch this show because it's a tradition I established as a kid as the one thing I do every year with my mother. But until the Academy rids themselves of these old, white baby boomers - #oscarssowhite isn't going to change. The bright side of this year is there were amazing movies. So much better than last year's malaise of the film equivalent to greek yogurt. There were several fantastic films this year that it's unfortunate only one person/film can win in each category. I feel a lot more confident in my picks this year, so if you're a betting person - here's your guaranteed LOCKS! LET'S DO THIS!!!

Best Picture:

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

I was lucky enough to see every movie on this list and this year has accomplished something I don't believe has ever happened in my lifetime (or at least since they've expanded the nominee list to 10): I thought every single one of these movies were fantastic. Toss Uncut Gems in there and you have pretty close to my ten favorite movies of the entire year. I personally loved The Irishman most in 2019, but that's because my Pacino/Pesci/DeNiro/Scorsese love is unmatched. I know people complained about the length, but I kept wishing it was longer. I know it's not the best movie of the year, but it was great. Same with Ford v Ferrari, which strangely won me over as being a really, really fun movie that I'd love to watch again. The problem again is the Academy gets ten slots and still has only used nine. Where is Uncut Gems? Where is Avengers: Endgame? Where's Knives Out and Booksmart? You've got the ten... use the damn ten!

What's Going to Win: 1917
What Deserves to Win: Parasite

Please don't get me wrong here. 1917 is an AMAZING movie. And when it wins, I'll be totally happy. It's beautiful and terrifying and heartbreaking and a damn near perfect war movie that puts you in the middle of what it was like to serve. But Parasite is the clear winner here, right? While I was blown away by 1917, Parasite stuck with me. Even after a second viewing - it's stuck with me. I know most of these voting honkies don't want a "foreign" film to win the Best 'Merican Film category (that's why we have separate categories), so I doubt it's going to double up. But it should. Parasite should break the ground where it wins Best Foreign Film and Best Picture. Sadly, it won't. And honestly, any of these movies could win. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could be Tarantino's Revenant pick. It's not his best movie, but he's earned a Best Picture award, hasn't he? Jojo Rabbit was so touching and hilarious. Marriage Story was heartbreaking with wonderful performances. Joker - which I still believe to be a bit overrated - is a solid indictment of the way this country treats those with mental illnesses. Little Women was a terrific adaptation of a property that's already been done as much as A Star is Born. All of these movies would've easily taken the gold last year. It's just unfortunate only one can leave with the award.

Best Actor:

Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Slightly upset at the Academy for intentionally dissing Adam Sandler. Like, we all know he's basically done it to himself with his slog of sludge he's put out the last fifteen years. But a great performance is a great performance. And Sandler blew me away in Uncut Gems. He was phenomenal. He was able to take a despicable character who makes literally all the wrong choices and elicit empathy from the audience. And yet... he got no love. It's a shame. Other snubs include randomly not nominating Robert DeNiro when his two other co-stars were given noms. Eddie Murphy missing out as Dolemite. And poor Taron Edgerton. He was a magnificent Elton John. But Bohemian Rhapsody fatigue had already caught up to voters.  Other than that, I assume the rest of the performances were up to Oscar par as I've only seen three of the five movies.

Who's Going to Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Who Deserves to Win: Joaquin Phoenix

It doesn't matter if I'd only seen Joker - Phoenix is a lock. Like a 155% lock. Bet your life savings on this one because there's no way in hell he doesn't take home the gold. And it's not a popularity issue either - he deserves it. We've seen how the character of The Joker can transform an actor into greatness (Nicholson, Ledger) or how you can bastardize the character (Leto). Luckily, Phoenix joins the former category. And while Arthur Fleck may not even be the legitimate Joker character (a theory is that he "inspired" the man who will one day become the Batman villain), that doesn't mean that Phoenix didn't give us the top 2 best Joker performance we've seen since the character's inception. Had the film failed or his performance not been up to snuff - I'd have given the gold to Driver. The argument in Marriage Story alone is worth the award for both him and ScarJo. Thankfully he's still got time.

Best Actress:

Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

I haven't seen all of these films, but from what I've heard/read/seen, the list is pretty accurate. The shocker here was Cynthia Erivo from Harriet. Harriet was critically mediocre and didn't do much to move the box office needle. But she's a great actress. The biggest snub in this category is absolutely Lupita Nyong'o from Us. She played dual roles and she was creepy as hell. It doesn't help that Us came out just about a year ago because if it had been in voters' minds, she should've been an absolute lock. Other than that, it appears they got the nominees right on this one.

Who's Going to Win: Renée Zellweger
Who Deserves to Win: Any of them

The reason I'm picking Zellweger is because she's taken home the gold in multiple other awards ceremonies this year and appears to be the frontrunner. However, I cannot confirm whether or not she deserves the Oscar because I haven't seen Judy. I've never been a Zellweger fan and I kinda sorta avoided the movie - but I've heard she's great. My preconceived notion of how I feel about her may cloud my judgement on the issue, however. If it were me voting, I would probably edge Saoirse Ronan over the rest. She was so great in Little Women. She carried herself in a way that you could see her toughness was a thin veil over her vulnerabilities. It was wonderful to behold. ScarJo was great as well. I gave Adam Driver the props for the "argument scene" in Marriage Story, but it was just as much her scene as it was his. Charlize was perfect as Megyn Kelly - but we've seen better from her. All of these brilliant and talented women deserve this prize. There is no one clear winner here. And I'll be happy if it goes to any of them not named Renée.

Best Supporting Actor:

Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time in Hollywood)

Go back and look at the Best Actor nominees. You've got a couple of A-listers on there, but it's not your normal ragtag group of dudes. Now look at the Best Supporting Actor nominees. These are the A-listers. These are the go-to names to headline movies. What in the God-loving hell are these guys doing in supporting roles? They're all getting older, but isn't it just crazy to see these five names in a list of actors who were only in supporting roles? Shit, Tom Hanks was a supporting character as Mr. Rogers in a movie about Mr. Rogers!!! Any of these guys could win based on their performances alone, but only one is the surefire winner here.

Who's Going to Win: Brad Pitt
Who Deserves to Win: Brad Pitt

I loved The Irishman. It was my favorite movie of 2019. I genuinely think that Al Pacino is the greatest actor of all time and his performance in The Irishman absolutely blew me away. Joe Pesci was a close second. To see him pulled out of retirement for that role was a delight. He can retire now having completed one of the best movies in his entire filmography. But Brad Pitt deserves the win. It might not be his greatest performance or his greatest role- but this is more of a lifetime achievement Oscar (much like Leo's Revenant win). And give it up to Quentin Tarantino for being able to write supporting characters. Holy shit. His last few movies have yielded Christoph Waltz TWO Best Supporting Actor awards (deservedly so). But Pitt is so much fun in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. He's hilarious, he's terrifying, he's absolutely JACKED. He brings the much-needed levity and personality to the movie that wouldn't have worked without him. So, just give him the Oscar already. He should've already had a few by now.

Best Supporting Actress:

Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

This category is the perfect example of #oscarssowhite. Reason being is there wasn't a performance by a woman all year that was as talked about and heralded as highly as Jennifer Lopez's performance in Hustlers. She was great. And while I don't think it was strong enough to win the award - it was certainly strong enough to get a nomination. Instead, we got two nominations that really didn't deserve to be on the list over J-Lo. First, I love Florence Pugh. She made a huge splash in 2019, but her performance in Little Women was just... decent. Her performance in Midsommar was much stronger, I thought. And then there's Margot Robbie, who was great in Bombshell, but I didn't think she stood out over the rest of them. Jennifer Lopez should've taken one of those spots.

Who's Going to Win: Laura Dern
Who Deserves to Win: Kathy Bates

Okay, okay, okay. Hold on. Let me explain myself here. I LOVE Laura Dern. I'm so happy she keeps popping up everywhere. She's a phenomenal actress and one who deserves to be on this list - and when she wins - she will have deserved that too! But just not for this role. It's such a brief role and all she's really doing is bringing over her Renata character from Big Little Lies. I don't know what all the hullabaloo is about with this particular performance when we got to see a hell of a lot more of it from two seasons of great television. But Kathy Bates... she absolutely broke my heart. She has no chance of winning since no one actually saw Richard Jewell but me... but she literally broke my heart in that role. She's perfect and it's one of the better, softer performances of her career. I saw something new in Bates. The same goes with ScarJo in Jojo Rabbit. What a wonderful performance to show us that she's just a couple movies away from taking home a bunch of awards.

Best Director:

Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)


There were absolutely no women nominated for Best Director. Again. None. The guy who directed Road Trip and The Hangover 2 got a nomination. But no women. No Greta Gerwig for Little Women. No Lulu Wang for The Farewell. No Lorene Scafaria for Hustlers. No Marielle Heller for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. All dudes. That's all I have to say about that.

Who's Going to Win: Quentin Tarantino
Who Deserves to Win: Bong Joon-ho

This one here is my long shot, money bet. There's been a strange trend at the Oscars the last decade. Normally it goes that whoever takes home the gold for Best Director will take home the gold for Best Picture as well. But five of the last eight years the Best Director and Best Picture films have been different. There's a high probability that Sam Mendes will win because 1917 is going to win Best Picture and his direction is one of the biggest reasons why that movie will win. But Tarantino hasn't ever won it. He's won twice for Screenplay - but never directing. And voters really love Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. So... I'm taking the risky bet here - one that may pay off big time if I were a betting man - and saying that while I still believe 1917 to be the victor... Tarantino takes home the gold for Directing. My hope is I'm wrong on both counts and Bong Joon-ho takes it. Parasite is above and beyond better than both of the aforementioned films.

Best Animated Feature:

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Once again no love for The Lego Movie. It was subbed a few years ago for some seriously unknown reason and now The Lego Movie: The Second One is missing from the list as well. Not sure how/why the Academy hates Legos, but I guess that's just what we have to deal with these days. It's also pretty amazing that Frozen II didn't make the list considering it's the highest grossing animated movie of all time. but I didn't see it. So it might be shit.

What's Going to Win: Toy Story 4
What Deserves to Win: Toy Story 4 (or Klaus)

Toy Story 4 did something very few movies have been able to do: produce the fourth entry of a series and make it almost as good as the rest of the series. Toy Story 3, in my opinion, is a perfect movie and the perfect end to the series. But if they HAD to make a fourth one, they did it right with Toy Story 4. And once again, Pixar reigns supreme. However, Klaus was a wonderful surprise. Only reason I'm not giving it to Klaus is that the first fifteen minutes of that movie are rough. I was very close to turning it off due to how obnoxious it was. But I kept going because I'd heard through word of mouth how great it was and I'm glad I did. But, boy... the beginning... woof.


Other Predictions:


Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Parasite
What Deserves to Win: Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Jojo Rabbit
What Deserves to Win: Jojo Rabbit

Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: Parasite
What Deserves to Win: Parasite

How Many Categories I'm Going To Pick Correctly: 9/10

Overall Consensus:
The Oscars still have a lot of growing to do. And that's saying something considering this is the 92nd ceremony. There needs to be a lot more inclusion or the show needs to be done away with entirely. This year has been easier than most years to predict and don't be surprised if I go 10/10 this year. These are mostly educated guesses - which is different than most years when they're just straight up shots in the dark. Enjoy the show and let's hope for a more progressive list of nominees in the years to come.

Big Peck's Cineflex Awards Edition V: Oscar Winner Predictions

Last year I predicted I'd get 8/10 of my predictions and I actually predicted that I'd predict that many. This year there's no way I'm going to get that many. This year is going to be an absolute shit show. This is the year where literally anything can happen and any movie could take away any piece of the gold and there's really no predicting what's going to go down. And usually that makes the Oscars fun. This year it's not. The reason there's no clear frontrunner (really) is because there was nothing in 2018 that stood out from the rest of the films released. As I said in my list of the best movies of 2018, there were a lot of good movies, but no real great ones. And the great ones were only great in comparison to the rest of the year. It was a lackluster year for movies, so it's going to be a lackluster Oscars this year... and it's not just the films nominated. It's everything else surrounding the Academy Awards. First, they gave the hosting job to hack comedian Kevin Hart. Then, some decade old homophobic tweets emerged (that we already knew existed anyway) and Hart was subsequently fired. Then maybe rehired, then definitely fired. So, they're going without a host. Then, there's the controversy over the Oscars giving out four awards during commercial breaks as if on a night that celebrates the best in Hollywood there are some awards that "just aren't as important". Thankfully, some of the Hollywood elite (including Tarantino, Scorsese, and Spike Lee) penned an angry letter demanding the awards get their time in the spotlight and the Academy reversed this decision reinforcing the fact that they don't give a shit about the awards. And yet, I'm still going to watch this inevitable trainwreck. Why? Because normally the Oscars are my Super Bowl (and this year's Oscar's will probably be as much of a dumpster fire as this year's actual Super Bowl) and it's because I'm so very, impossibly white, it's like my Kryptonite. So, without further adieu, here are my picks for this year's Oscar Travesty. (Don't put down any money in Vegas on these picks because they're honestly a shot in the dark).

Best Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Room
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

The Academy, who have the power and ability to nominate up to ten movies chose eight films. If you have ten spots, why not fill them with TEN SPOTS? They "conveniently" left out some wonderful movies like Eighth Grade, Leave No Trace, and First Reformed (it's even worse when you consider Bohemian Rhapsody got one of the spots). But all of these movies are just fine. None of them would really even be in contention any other year (maybe the year The Artist won and War Horse was nominated), but right now the frontrunner is Roma and what's really kind of shitty is that I enjoyed that movie the least of all the ones nominated. But it's looking like out of all of them, that's the one that's going to get the gold.

What's Going to Win: Roma
What Deserves to Win: Black Panther... The Favourite... Green Room... A Star is Born...

I didn't do a review of it because I only saw it about a week ago, but Roma was one of the slowest and most boring movies I've ever seen. I had high expectations because of all the clout surrounding it, but it nearly put me to sleep and I honestly couldn't see why everyone is jerking themselves off to it. I love Alfonso Cuaron as a director, but there's hardly a casual fan (hell, even an avid fan) of film that's going to enjoy this movie. It's an indie-house jerk fest with a message that people shouldn't be getting behind, but claim they like it because they think they're supposed to. The four "deserves" above deserve it more. But I don't think any of them really have a shot. And when Roma does indeed win Best Picture, the Academy can go back to wondering why people have stopped giving a shit about the Academy Awards, thus reinforcing how disconnected they are from people in "the real world".

Best Actor:

Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

The Best Actor category WAS going to be the one to watch this year. For having such lackluster movies, 2018 showcased some fantastic performances. When I first saw A Star is Born I figured Bradley Cooper as a lock because I don't think I'd seen as strong of a performance by an actor in several years. But then came Rami Malek's Freddie Mercury, then Viggo Mortensen in Green Book, then the unrecognizable Christian Bale in Vice and it was anyone's game. The Academy messed up big time with their fifth nomination. And while I'm sure Willem Dafoe is phenomenal in At Eternity's Gate (a movie I never saw/heard of until the nomination was announced), Ethan Hawke in First Reformed blew me away. He deserves to be up there and it's a travesty that he's not. However, the anticipation of the race between these acting juggernauts has dwindled to a small spark due to one actor winning everything this award's season.

Who's Going to Win: Rami Malek
Who Deserves to Win: All of them

Yes, Rami Malek's portrayal of Freddie Mercury has stolen the gold at nearly every awards show this season and has all but cancelled any other actor's chance of causing an upset. I genuinely believe that if I had an Oscar vote, I wouldn't have hesitated to give it to Cooper, but Malek does deserve it. Bohemian Rhaposdy is a cookie-cutter biopic that doesn't stray from typical structure and is as paint-by-numbers as you can get. But, you watch the movie for Malek's performance. It's so good you almost forget how uninspired the movie really is. Then, there's Christian Bale who deserves it not just for transforming his body to the lump of Chaney, but for actually becoming the dude and making you forget Christian Bale is a real person. Any of these studs deserve this award, but it's Malek who's certain to be the victor.

Best Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Coleman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to give an "expert" opinion about this category as I missed a few of the movies on this list and was unable to take in the performances of all of these fine actresses. Of the ones I did see, the nominations were certainly deserved. I believe the Academy, once again, overlooked Elsie Fisher from Eighth Grade who, in her first starring role, made me feel things I had never felt watching a movie before (mostly it was sheer and utter discomfort), but she was so great in that movie, not recognizing her performance is something irresponsibly overlooked by the Academy. However, it does give us hope that she's bound for great things. I wasn't able to see The Wife and I didn't see Can You Ever Forgive Me... though I really wanted to. But, there's one actress who has been getting the Best Actress award almost as much as Rami Malek...

Who's Going to Win: Glenn Close
Who Deserves to Win: Probably Glenn Close? Maybe Melissa McCarthy? Definitely Olivia Coleman.

Glenn Close is a wonderful actress who has given powerful performances in nearly everything she's ever been in... and has never won an Academy Award. Since I haven't seen The Wife this could be her "due" award or she could actually deserve it. It's honestly probably both. I love seeing Melissa McCarthy in here as she's garnered her first nomination with only her first ever foot into the dramatic pond. Olivia Coleman stole every scene from everyone else in The Favourite. I don't have any real strong feelings about Yalitza Aparicio. She was fine. She wasn't given much to do (other than look particularly melancholy) and given even less to say. But she was fine. And I don't know... Lady Gaga. She was good and her voice definitely contributed to making A Star is Born a quality movie, but I just don't feel her performance was strong enough for a nomination. In any case, look for Close to finally get her due on Oscar night.

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlackKklansman)
Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Usually the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories are pretty tough to gauge and most of the time all five nominees could run away with the award. This is true in the Actress category, but Supporting Actor has a weird five going on here. While Mahershala Ali and Sam Elliot (and from what I've read) Richard E. Grant all deserve to be here... Adam Driver and Sam Rockwell are puzzling nominations. First Driver... while he was very good in BlackKklansman, he wasn't the one in the movie who stood out from the rest. John David Washington (Denzel's son) was perfect in that movie and probably should've garnered a nom himself. But to put Driver on a list of the best while ignoring JDW... it's a little bit strange. And Sam Rockwell, while he was great as W... was only in the movie maybe ten minutes and certainly didn't outshine Steve Carell's Donald Rumsfeld. So, the addition of these two actors while withholding others who deserved the noms over them are quite puzzling. In the end, it doesn't matter because there's only one dude on this list who is a bonafide shoo-in...

Who's Going to Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Deserves to Win: Mahershala Ali

While there has been some controversy surrounding Green Book (which I still think is a great movie), Mahershala Ali's performance (like all of his performances) makes the movie as good as it is. It also helps that he's just as good on this season's True Detective, keeping him in the limelight of the Academy voters. This one is almost as good of a lock as you can have this year at the Oscars. He will take the prize. However, if he somehow did get overlooked, don't stray too far from Sam Elliot's name. This is a dude who has been around Hollywood forever. And he's always seemed like a one-note pony. It's a very entertaining pony, but he put up a once-in-a-lifetime performance in A Star is Born. The dude made me tear up more during his heartfelt scene than I did at any other point in the movie. If somehow the voters decide not to award Ali his second award in two years, look for Elliot to take it. (But, that's not going to happen.)

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Now, unlike Best Supporting Actor, this one is much closer to call. All of these ladies put in exceptional work in their respective roles and films and could easily win the award. And it would be deserved. It's a little weird that the Academy considered Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz's performances as "supporting" when the movie treats both of them (and Olivia Coleman) equally as leads. It's hard to understand how the committee decided to break them up the way they did as all three could've been in the Best Actress category or all three in the Best Supporting Actress category. However, I don't think it would've increased or decreased the chances for any of them because there's one who barely outshines the rest here.

Who's Going to Win: Regina King
Who Deserves to Win: Regina King

Regina King has been a Hollywood grinder for over two decades. I still recall seeing her in Jerry Maguire twenty-three years ago and realizing how great she was... and still is. While If Beale Street Could Talk was a little slow and stale at some points, she lit up the screen every scene she was in. She deserves the award, not just for this one performance, but for a lifetime of wonderful work that, in theory, will get recognized FINALLY by the Academy on Sunday. If there's a dark horse in this race, however, I couldn't pinpoint who it would be. Adams, Stone, Weisz could all have a legitimate shot at taking it - if Regina King, in some other unholy dimension wasn't nominated. Marina de Tavira probably won't though. Just sayin.

Best Director:

Spike Lee (BlackKklansman)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)


So... Academy... you're telling me that you're going to throw a director on the list of Best Directors who is up for an actual gold statue... but their movie isn't on the Best Picture list? What is this fuckery? Now, I haven't seen Cold War, but it's already a mess if the Best Director category has a name that the Best Picture category doesn't. I'm sorry Pawel Pawlikowski... but Bradley Cooper deserves your spot. And you know what... for that matter... I love Adam McKay. I think he's great, but the direction of Vice wasn't what stood out to me in that movie. You know what movie did? Black Panther. So, Ryan Coogler... you get McKay's spot. And Cuarón... my dislike for Roma stands, so you lose your spot to Bo Burnham for Eighth Grade. And that's how it's gonna go, ya hear me?

Who's Going to Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Who Deserves to Win: Spike Lee

Give it to Spike Lee, damn it! He deserves it. Much like Regina King, he's been a workhorse with movies that are both underrated, and with something culturally relevant to say. But since the Academy are comprised of a bunch of old, stuck up, white people, he's never been given his due. Give it to him. Was BlackKklansman the best movie of the year? No, not really. Was it even the best of Spike Lee's career? No. But he's due. Give it to him! The Academy are going to give it to Cuarón because it's just the type of movie the Academy thinks it should award, when really it isn't. Give it to Spike Lee and... do the right thing.... eh? Eh????

Best Animated Feature:

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Finally, it's a year that Pixar is going to take a backseat to the rest of the nominations. It wasn't a particularly great year for animated movies, but other than Incredibles 2 (which was awful) the rest seem to be placed exactly where they should be. For most of the year, I probably would've been on the Isle of Dogs bandwagon, thinking nothing else in 2018 could beat it. I mean, it really is one of Wes Anderson's best movies as of late. But it's not as good as...

What's Going to Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
What Deserves to Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Man isn't just the best animated movie of the year (by far), it's legitimately the best Spider-Man movie in existence. I know that's not hard to do since it's been rebooted a thousand times, but they finally got a grasp on how to do a Spider-Man movie - do it as animation. It's almost too goofy to be a live action (though the last live action one and the one in the Avengers movies have mostly remedied this). Wreck-It Ralph 2 was decent, but nowhere near the quality of the first movie. And, like I said, Incredibles 2 was just as slow and boring and uninteresting as the first movie. This one is pretty close to a lock (unless there's just some overwhelming Pixar bias here), so you can feel good about this pick on your Oscar ballot.


Other Predictions:


Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Roma
What Deserves to Win: Any of the other nominated screenplays

Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: BlackKklansman
What Deserves to Win: BlackKklansman

Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: Roma (which is going to piss me off when it gets both)
What Deserves to Win: Uhhhh...... Cold War?

Best Documentary Feature:
What's Going to Win: Free Solo
What Deserves to Win: Won't You Be My Neighbor (even though it wasn't even nominated)


How Many Categories I'm Guaranteed To Pick Correctly: 8/11


Consensus:

I'm sure most of you aren't even going to watch the Oscars. This year full of controversy, bad decisions, and movies the general public don't give two shits about isn't enticing enough to draw the normal crowd. I'm sure the numbers will be down and the event will be as bad as we're all assuming that it will be. But if the Academy can make some correct decisions (like giving awards to Regina King, Spike Lee, Mahershala Ali, Spider-Man and not giving Roma everything) it might not be too terrible. Let's just get through this one so we can get excited again for next year's even worse night of glitz, glamour, and catastrophe.

Big Peck's Cineflex Awards Edition VI: Oscar Winner Predictions

Hit a bit of bad luck last year with only 6 predictions being correct out of 10. I mean, I guess we could say 7 because I had La La Land winning Best Picture and it TECHNICALLY did win for a solid two minutes. This year is going to be much worse. Usually the Oscars are difficult to pick because there are a clear two to three frontrunners, but any of them could win anything so it's the luck of the draw. Of the nine movies nominated for Best Picture (and I've now seen all of them), seven of them are amazing, fantastic, deserve-to-win type films. 2017 was an astonishing year for movies. I mean, only in February did we realize we had probably the best movie we were going to see all year in Get Out (which thankfully was recognized by the Academy, though it probably won't win anything). Then in early summer we had Dunkirk, thinking we had a shoo-in for Best Picture. Then followed everything else. Sure, you've got your Oscar-bait films like Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread, but 2017 was about unique filmmaking voices and talents making great movies. I'll be lucky to get 6/10 this year.

Best Picture:

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Look at this list! Almost any other year, nearly all of them could be the lead contender for Best Picture. It's almost bad luck for these movies to have come out in the same year. Lady Bird, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Get Out, Three Billboards... these are great movies that all deserve the award, but all but one will be outshined by the winner. This is the first year where I don't think the Academy forgot a movie. I think all were deserved (in their own right), however if I had my say, I would make one tiny move-- I probably would replace either Phantom Thread or Darkest Hour with I, Tonya. But other than that, they made the right call. It's going to be a tight race with Three Billboards and The Shape of Water with Lady Bird coming in as the dark horse, but I'm confident(ish) in my prediction:

What's Going to Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Deserves to Win: Three Billboards, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water

THIS is the tough category my friends. This one. Right now the projections for Best Picture have Three Billboards neck and neck with The Shape of Water and every other day Variety or The Wrap or Deadline or any number of movie-centric writing has them flip-flopping for Best Picture. The Shape of Water has the definite edge right now. It won Best Picture at both the Producer's Guild and the Director's Guild... and normally the film that wins those... wins the Oscar. But, I just have a feeling about Three Billboards. If The Shape of Water wins, I won't be upset-- but I also won't be surprised. I honestly thought right around awards season, the contenders would be Three Billboards, Get Out, and Dunkirk, but the latter two have kinda fizzled out. So, right now, it feels like it's down to two. I hope I get it right because to me, not only was Three Billboards a superior movie, it legitimately was the best movie of the year.

Best Actor:

Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

This is a solid list. I mean, any category that features Daniel Day-Lewis, Gary Oldman AND Denzel means that there were some solid performances by male actors in a single year. There were even two newcomers. Even though I agree that Chalamet was pretty good in Call Me By Your Name, it's the third performance I've seen him give and I'm just not that impressed by him. I'm not a fan and I'm not sure why. Kaluuya was sensational in Get Out as he freakin' NAILED that one-tear scene. That alone would garner an award from me. As far as snubs go... Tom Hanks is definitely missing from the list, but it's not a stretch to see why. He was good in The Post but he's been better. The one that's difficult to wrap my head around is James Franco. Before the #MeToo movement, Franco would have the top spot and be a genuine contender. Regardless of his actions and what you think of the guy, he knocked his portrayal of Tommy Wiseau out of the park. However, this does not mean that Franco the PERSON deserves ANY recognition anymore.

Who's Going to Win: Gary Oldman
Who Deserves to Win: Gary Oldman

This is Oldman's award. It's a solid list of actors, but there's really only one performance among them that truly stands out and it's Gary Oldman. The movie itself, to me at least, was a real snoozefest (that even Oldman couldn't save), but there's no denying his portrayal of Churchill was the best of the year. Everyone thought that DDL was a shoo-in due to the fact that apparently Phantom Thread is to be his last movie forever. He's already got three... could he be the only one for four? Nope. Not this time. And he was phenomenal in the role... they all were. But you can't tangle with that fat suit and a movie that just drips white hot Oscar bait.

Best Actress:

Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

Take a second and drink in this list of five extraordinary actresses. Think about each film and each performance given be every single one of them. I honest to God can not remember a list this perfect when legitimately EVERY SINGLE ONE gave an Oscar-worthy portrayal. I'm proud of each and every single one of these women. I'm so very impressed by them, I'd like to eliminate the Best Actor category this year and be able to give an extra award to one of these women. Holy shit were they all perfect. It's seriously a shame that only one of them get to win. The only snub I can think of is Michelle Williams for All the Money in the World, and even then her performance in that movie is still sub par compared to the five women on the list. I hope this trend of writing amazing female roles continues and we get to see the Actresses severely outshine the actors for years to come.

Who's Going to Win: Frances McDormand
Who Deserves to Win: Frances McDormand AND THE REST OF THEM

Even though this race is the tightest in all of the categories, I have no doubt that McDormand will win. It will be highly deserved and I can not wait to see her crazy speech. She's a firecracker of a woman who plays the troubled and angry Mildred Hayes. The movie is not an easy one to sit through, but I could watch the movie every day just for her character alone. A close second, for me, would be Margot Robbie, though she's lost a lot of steam and the second place contender at the moment is Sally Hawkins who manages to turn in just as much of an emotionally resonant performance as the rest of them, even though she never utters a single word. Ronan is perfect in Lady Bird and I see bright things for her future. And Streep... well... Streep will always get that fifth spot. This just isn't the year for her to take the gold again. It's going to McDormand.

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Much like the Best Actress category, this category is a sadly (and amazingly) one that is TOUGH. Here are five actors who gave outstanding performances, who, in most other years, would easily win. And not just them, either. Armie Hammer definitely deserved a nomination for Call Me By Your Name, but in a class this outstanding someone had to be left out. It's a shame that only one of these guys can actually take home the gold because a piece should go home with each of them. However, there is one who, by the tiniest of hairs, does stand out above all the rest. 

Who's Going to Win: Sam Rockwell
Who Deserves to Win: Sam Rockwell

Even if it's not the best performance of his entire career (emotionally and comedically I say it's damn near close), Sam Rockwell has been the underrated character actor in Hollywood for far too long. During his acceptance speech at the Golden Globes he made a joke about how happy he is that people are actually seeing a movie he's in and it's a damn travesty. He's one of the most likable actors in recent memory and the dude should be a STAR at this point. An Oscar definitely wouldn't hurt his chances with that. Look, Richard Jenkins made me feel things I didn't know I could feel and Dafoe and Harrelson were wonderful as well (and Plummer was a hell of a Kevin Spacey), but Rockwell deserves this award. He deserves it.

Best Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Okay... this is a strange list. I agree with the five ladies on the list (though I haven't seen Mudbound, I've just heard how great Mary J. is in it). I do worry a little bit that the Academy is nominating Octavia Spencer every time she's in a movie now so they're not called out for #oscarssowhite any longer. She absolutely deserves a nomination for The Shape of Water -- much more so than her nom for Hidden Figures. Let's just make sure these names are deserved and not obligatory. Meryl Streep gets the obligatory nomination literally every year, we don't need more than one. But again, it's a solid list. Holly Hunter would've made my five for The Big Sick, but other than that, I can live with these names.

Who's Going to Win: Allison Janney
Who Deserves to Win: Allison Janney OR Laurie Metcalf

It's either of them. Seriously. Gun to my head I wouldn't be able to choose which one gave the stronger "tough mom" performance. Janney is the frontrunner because she's basically the Sam Rockwell of actresses-- amazing but sadly underrated. She deserves to win due to her longevity in the business and how happy she makes everyone around her/everyone who watches anything she's in. But Laurie Metcalf... she came out of nowhere. Go back and watch old episodes of Roseanne and point to the TV and say "hey, you know she's going to be nominated for an Academy Award" and no one would believe you. It was brilliant casting on Greta Gerwig's part and Metcalf gave us all a shock at how great she still is. Give it to either of these lovely ladies and it'll be the right call.

Best Director:

Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)

Get the f**k outta here with that Paul Thomas Anderson nomination. No way. No absolute way does he deserve to be on the list with four other directorial geniuses. Phantom Thread was okay. The direction was very Paul Thomas Anderson-y, but it doesn't mean you should just move aside a couple of really deserved people in order to get his name up there. There's a legitimately good chance that Three Billboards is going to win Best Picture, not just because I think it should. And if it does, its writer/director (who will probably get an award for his own script and by proxy get a few of his actors awards) will be devoid a spot on the Best Director list. Get the hell outta here, Academy. That being said... how awesome is it to see the rest of these names? Two who directed their FIRST films ever. I don't know any of them, but I'm proud of four of them... and Martin McDonagh.

Who's Going to Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Who Deserves to Win: Guillermo Del Toro OR Christopher Nolan

I mean, we saw this with Argo before when the Best Picture of the year's director didn't even get a second look. So, I would honestly say that McDonagh deserves at least a nom. But, for me, it's Del Toro or Nolan's to take. Dunkirk isn't going to get nearly half the love it deserves, but it's a stellar movie. What Nolan did with the constant intensity coupled with the lack of dialogue is superb. I've never really seen a movie (especially a war movie) like it. He's been overlooked several times and he should get more notice for his passion project. Speaking of passion projects and being overlooked-- it's equally Del Toro's time for an Oscar. He was sorely overlooked for Pan's Labyrinth and the man is wholly talented in all aspects of film. The Shape of Water is gorgeous, but it wouldn't have been half of what it is without Del Toro's directorial eye. He deserves the award even if The Shape of Water doesn't win. And he will get it.

Best Animated Feature:

The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand 
Loving Vincent


So... what is it, Academy? You felt too respected? You were TOO separated from the Golden Globes? They're the ones who are supposed to hand out disrespectful nominations in favor of actual good movies. What, you wanted to be the laughing stock of the awards world? I'm just gonna say this right now... a couple of years ago... The Lego Movie not only deserved a nomination... it deserved the win. And it got neither. This year, you have once again snubbed a very good and highly regarded by critics and audience members Lego movie-- Lego Batman Movie. Not only did you piss on the Lego franchise once again... but you gave one of the five spots... to the f**king Boss Baby?! Are you kidding?!

What's Going to Win: Coco
What Deserves to Win: Coco

This isn't even up for discussion. Coco might be Pixar's magnum opus. I thought Inside Out had everything anyone ever possibly needed in a movie and then they come back with Coco. It's PERFECT. It is a perfect movie. It's so perfect it deserves to be up on the Best Picture list instead of relegated to the Animated Movie category. If you haven't seen it... see it. If you didn't like it... stop watching movies because you're clearly going through something that impedes your ability to love. Coco will win.


Other Predictions: 

Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Deserves to Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Get Out, Lady Bird

(I just want to point out how much I love the fact that five of the best movies of the year... were ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYS. Take more chances, Hollywood!!!)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Call Me By Your Name
What Deserves to Win: Logan OR Call Me By Your Name     

Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: The Insult
What Deserves to Win: Uhhhh... no idea. Didn't see any of them and this is the one I've read has the best chance.

How Many Categories I'm Guaranteed To Get Correctly: 8/10

Consensus:

Finally... it's a year where the majority of the front-runners and favorites in all categories are the movies that DESERVE to win those categories. There probably will only be an upset (if there is one) in the Best Picture or (and this would have to be super dark horse) the Best Director category. I could see Get Out or Lady Bird taking the Original Screenplay category for both the fact that each movie will probably get overlooked in nearly every other category and this is a category the Academy could give it a little recognition. But, I'm pretty confident in at least 8 of my picks this year. Let's keep this trend going, Hollywood. Keep banking on original content and let writers bring us beautiful stories we've never seen before. And... for old time's sake... bring back Billy Crystal or Steve Martin for one more Oscar hosting gig before we don't get to see them anymore at all.  

Big Peck's Cineflex Awards Edition V: Oscar Winner Predictions

After #Oscarssowhite, the old fucks behind the Academy Awards decided to step up their game a little bit. They might have even over-compensated (because seriously... Hidden Figures wasn't that good).  So, the score from last year is 8 out of 9 picks I secured.  Okay, 7.5 picks seeings as how I couldn't decide between The Revenant and Spotlight for Best Picture and Spotlight won. But in a year that released a cavalcade of seriously underwhelming movies... we did up the diversity factor.  It wasn't just a white-washed moviefest in 2016, even though the movie with the most nominations ONLY white people are going to enjoy.  So, we made more movies starring and about people of color in order to shove something large and pointy up the asses of the Academy and we elected a literal cheese puff into office.  We are a seriously indecisive and dumb ass country. Anyway, here are my picks for this year's Academy Awards in case you're putting any money down in Vegas and you want some rock solid picks.

Best Picture:

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land 
Lion
Manchester By The Sea
Moonlight

Like I said, the movies this year were a bit underwhelming (not like the year Slumdog Millionaire won or the year The Artist won-- seriously go check out the nominees for those years) but the Academy did a pretty good job of selecting the best movies of the year. I wouldn't have nominated Hidden Figures, and replaced it with A Monster Calls, The Nice Guys or Don't Think Twice, but it was nice to see Hell or High Water make the list. All of these films minus Hidden Figures and Lion made my top ten movies of the year list. And while all of these movies were great in their own right, there are really only two clear cut favorites/front-runners in my mind.


What's Going to Win: La La Land
What Should Win: Moonlight

I'm not trying to take anything away from La La Land because it's a great movie. But, come one Academy.  One year after everyone hashtagged you about how much you DON'T appreciate black people, they give you a movie about a GAY BLACK DUDE. It couldn't be more simple to select a winner. Remember a couple years ago when there was a movie about SLAVERY and you were like-- uhhhhhhh.... yeahhhhhh.... we should probs get on that one. Here's another one! In all seriousness, though, Moonlight was legitimately the best movie of 2016. While The Nice Guys was definitely my favorite movie, Moonlight was the absolute best. It's a beautiful film that deserves all of the recognition it is getting and doesn't really deserve to lose out to a movie with two signing and dancing white people whose only source of conflict is that they haven't 'made it' in Hollywood yet. It's going to go to La La Land, and if it does, it's certainly deserving.  But, Moonlight is the movie that should be crushing all of the compettion around it. However, the only other times a movie has received 14 nominations like LLL has... they were Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and Titanic, so....

 








Best Actor: 

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortenson (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Certainly a decent year when it comes to acting. Notice it's primarily white, but then again all of the fantastic stars of Moonlight all had basically supporting roles.  If I could combine all four of the supporting roles in that film into one nomination, it would be a shoo-in. This category was pretty well represented other than the fact that Michael Keaton got stiffed for The Founder.  It was a bit of a quiet movie that didn't get a ton of publicity, so it kind of fell by the wayside, but he deserves to be up there just as much as any of the others. In fact, I'd probably remove Ryan Gosling from the list in favor of Keaton. Not that Gosling wasn't great in his role, it just wasn't as genuinely impressive as Keaton's was.

Who's Going to Win: Casey Affleck
Who Deserves to Win: Affleck OR Denzel

It's a cold day in movie Hell when anyone has a shot against Denzel Washington. He's the Meryl Streep of the acting category (more for the fact that he's better than all... not so much the amount he's won which is astoundingly small). But, damn, if Casey Affleck didn't kill it in Manchester by the Sea.  His performance was so subtle, and yet in your face. It was a remarkable performance from someone who looks like he's about to be outed as a complete prick.  Lifestyle choices aside... he's definitely the frontrunner for this category. If there was a surprise and Denzel took it, he'd be MORE than deserving.  But, if Affleck's latest controversies don't catch up to him and influence the voters, look for him to take it.

Best Actress:

Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Ohhhhhhhhhhh Jesus. Lookie there. It's Meryl Stree once again getting the nom. The only surprise about this list is that Jennifer Lawrence finally missed a year. Unfortunately for her the only film she was in this year was the pretty creepy and incredibly underwhelming Passengers. I'm sad to say that I've only actually seen one of these films, so I can't exactly speak to who should be on the list and who shouldn't. I mean, it's pretty clear that Meryl isn't going to win this year and it's really only because she is the best actress ever that she made the cut. But, the only names I can see missing from this list are Annette Benning in 20th Century Women and Amy Adams in Arrival or Nocturnal Animals. 

Who's Going to Win: Emma Stone
Who Deserves to Win: Natalie Portman

Again, I haven't seen all the movies, and I haven't even actually seen Jackie, but everything I've heard/read suggests that Portman deserves this more than anyone else. However, due to poor box office performance, she lost the steam she needed in order to win her second statue. Emma Stone has gained serious momentum over the last month, and yes, the last song she performs in La La Land all but solidifies the fact that she's probably going to take this one.

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Another solid list of actors on this list. I can't think of anyone that has been neglected for this category. It is nice to see that the Oscars gave the bird to the Golden Globes and nominated the actor who truly deserved to be nominated in this category from that film-- Michael Shannon. It was sort of strange to give Aaron Taylor-Johnson the nom for the GG's when it was Shannon who really stole the show. I will say that though it wasn't the toughest year to narrow down the best performances, the Academy is spot on with this category.

Who's Going to Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Deserves to Win: Mahershala Ali

Jeff Bridges was fantastic in Hell or High Water, but it wasn't deserving of the top spot.  I look at it more as the "quirky old man" award, like when Alan Arkin won for Little Miss Sunshine. Lucas Hedges gave a stellar performance and Dev Patel made a deal with someone because, while he was amazing in Lion, he was definitely a lead role, not a supporting one. But Ali was perfect in his role in Moonlight.  He's only in it for a good twenty minutes or so, but he commands the screen in every second the camera is on him. I really hope that there's a huge upset and Moonlight takes the majority of the awards.  That would really show 'em! (Who? I have no idea.)

Best Supporting Actress:

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Whoooooaaaaa Academy. Looks like our #oscarssowhite hashtags really got to you this year, huh? Three African-American actresses nominated in the same category with only two white chicks?! Are you apologizing, compensating for something, or have you actually figured it out? This was another great list, but the one perplexing nominee, to me, is Spencer. She was fine in Hidden Figures, but didn't even come close to something mindblowing. If anything, Taraji P. Henson is the one who deserves to have her name on this list. She blew me away. Spencer's role, while good, was a very small background role that didn't really deserve a spot on the list.

Who's Going to Win: Viola Davis
Who Deserves to Win: Viola freakin' Davis

Dude. There is NO way anyone else on this list takes the gold this year. Viola Davis gave the best performance in a movie hands down.  I'm not just talking actresses. I'm talking any movie with anyone in it this entire year... Viola Davis is the Queen. If there was to be an upset-- which there won't be-- Michelle Williams is a distant second. While her role is small, the last scene between her and Casey Affleck will chill you to the bone. (Have I used enough cliches yet?)And I have to do a shout out to my girl Nicole Kidman. Heartbreaking! Had me near tears.  But guess what lil homies-- Viola Davis brought the muhf**kin house DOWN! Viola Davis WILL take this category. No question.

Best Director:

Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

So far this has been the most controversial category. A lot of people still haven't forgiven Mel Gibson for his anti-Jewish/anti-woman/anti-everyone rants back in the day. Yet, we're not up in arms about Casey Affleck?? (Google it... he's most likely a piece of shit). I probably wouldn't have changed anything about these five other than maybe tossed in Denzel again for the double nom whammy. What he did with Fences... how he made a theatrical movie feel like you're sitting and watching a real-life stage play was phenomenal. Other than that, everyone deserves to be here... including Mel.

Who's Going to Win: Damien Chazelle
Who Deserves to Win: Barry Jenkins

This one is TOUGH. The Academy has been very random with their Best Director winners the past few years. Most of the time if a movie was going to win Best Picture, the person who Directed that movie would always win. This hasn't been the case lately. However, I am sticking with the format of old because while Barry Jenkins would be the new choice if La La Land takes Best Picture, Hollywood loves musical movies about Hollywood. And, what he did is very impressive, especially the opening single-shot sequence of the film. He's almost assuredly going to win, but I'd still give it to Jenkins. Moonlight forever.

Best Animated Feature:

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Is it or is it not just a tad bit shocking that Pixar didn't make the cut? I mean, I've only seen two of these films and while I've heard very good things about Kubo and I've even heard rumblings about The Red Turtle, not only have I heard literally nothing about My Life as a Zucchini, but Finding Dory was a fantastic sequel. Other than the Toy Story sequels, Pixar hasn't really been the gold standard for their sequels with Cars and Monsters University. But, I would say that Finding Dory certainly deserved a spot here. However, it is nice to see that Pixar isn't entirely infallible. If it has enough good competition, it isn't exactly always a shoo-in.

What's Going to Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
What Deserves to Win: Zootopia

Like I said... I've only seen two of the five films nominated, but Zootopia was brilliant. The reason I believe it doesn't stand a chance is that it came out wayyyy back in March of 2016. Too much time (almost an entire year) has gone by and people have forgotten the impact that film had not just on kids but on everyone. Then again, I've heard nothing but great, positive buzz about Kubo and how spectacular it is supposed to be. It's actually been enough that I've gone from "meh... looks decent, but not my thing" to "maybe I should actually check this one out." Also... don't discount Moana. If the Academy really wants Lin Manuel-Miranda to EGOT... this could be the sleeper pick.

Other Predictions:

Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: La La Land
What Deserves to Win: Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Moonlight
What Deserves to Win: Moonlight

Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: Toni Erdmann
What Deserves to Win: Probably that. Didn't see any of them. That's just the only one I know people are tuggin' their dicks to.

Chance of Lin-Manuel Miranda Being the Youngest Person to EGOT: 60%

How Many Categories I'm Guaraneed to Pick Correctly: 7/10

Consensus:

If we look at the track record of past Academy Awards, then we know that this year is going to be a La La Land sweep. Only twice before has there been 14 nominations for a single film in a single year and that film normally walks away with the majority of the categories they're up for. Crazily enough, La La Land is able to creep into music, sound, costume design, acting, directing, writing and it's all stellar. If it wins each of these categories, it's certainly deserving. I would just love to see Moonlight, the best movie of last year and the riskiest move that Academy has made in a long time. Sure, they gave Hidden Figures the apology nominations this year and a lot more credit than it actually deserved... but Moonlight deserves every category and it's only guaranteed one is Adapted Screenplay. 2016 was a lame duck year in almost every cinematic aspect, so I'm expecting good things from 2017. However, when that happens, a lot more movies miss the cut and a lot more people are left without any recognition (and the Academy has a very strange way of awkwardly making sure these are generally people of color). Every movie this year, while not super-Scorese/Spielberg-exciting, were all very deserving and whoever takes an award in each of the categories is definitely more deserving than some of the people who have taken the gold in the past.      

Big Peck's Cineflex Awards Edition IV: Oscar Winner Predictions

Last year I called my shots pretty damn well.  I was only fooled a couple of times and those were some pretty controversial choices (probably) #whoremembersthisshit? Anyway, 2015 was a pretty sweet year for white people.  White movies reigned supreme. As they should.  White people are obviously God's children that only deserve his love and respect #Jesuswaswhite. So, for all the whitey's out there who want the well-deserved recognition for their whiteness... I have compiled a list of Oscar predictions to discuss when out with friends sharing wine, eating kale and discussing Paul Rudd. #whitelivesmatter


Best Picture:

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Not to take away from all of the well-deserved whiteness from all of these movies, there is the possibility of ten nominations.  They used eight of them.  So, I mean you could've used those two spots to holla at Dope or Straight Outta Compton or Beasts of No Nation or, you know, completely not use them at all because ethnic movies are #inferior. So, of the white movies I can say that they are all very good movies... with very good white people in them. All are enjoyable and most of them are deserving of the Oscar... but who will the old white people vote for? The one about white people on Wall Street?  The one with the white people during the Cold War? The one with the white girl from Ireland? The one with the white person on Mars (is that technically immigration...?).  Or the one with the white dude who gets maliciously attacked, unprovoked, by a BROWN bear? #buildawall

What's Going To Win: The Revenant (However I could see it going to Spotlight too)
What Should Win: The Revenant or Spotlight or a well timed discussion of diversity.

It's kind of hard to give a shit about the Oscars this year.  I mean, for a budding screenwriter it's the Super Bowl.  And as a white man, it's doing everything it can to keep us on top.  But, it's just going to be underwhelming this year. Yes, all of the movies were very white good. And if The Revenant wins it definitely deserves it. But when you give an award to the cutest identical twin... it's kind of fucking stupid.

Best Actor:

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

These awards are so fucking white this year they nominated not one, not two, but THREE GINGERS. #nosouls. None of them have a shot in hell at winning, but can you get any whiter? So, look, legit I know that Concussion was not that brilliant of a movie. So, it didn't deserve a Best Pic nod... but my boy Will Smith was as good as I've ever seen him. Cranston is a must, DiCaprio is a must... everyone else was the same plain yogurt flavor.  Coulda blacked it up a bit #thatwasn'tracist #Ipromise.

Who's Going To Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio or the fact that people will never stop using the argument that there "aren't enough roles written for black actors" #Jesuswaswhite

You KNOW the Academy gon give Leo his damn Award.  And overlooking the fact that he was born of white descent... he deserves it.  He really does.  Dude has paid his dues tenfold. Then again, I think the wait was worth it.  This really was his best performance. Wolf of Wall Street was a great performance, but not that difficult of one.  The only movie I've seen him in where he's been as great was The Departed and dude wasn't even nominated for that one.  He was nominated for Blood Diamond #whiteAfricansbetterthanBlackones

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Real talk: Yo, Tessa Thompson from Creed KILLED IT.  Shit, that role was made for an Oscar... chick had a hearing problem #canyousaydisability? Yet, we had to overlook her performance in favor of making sure J-Law got ANOTHER nomination.  No one loved Joy.  No one gave a shit about that movie when they left the theater. Yet, it's another year that J-Law had a movie come out, so she gotta get put up because white.

Who's Going To Win: Brie Larson
Who Should Win: Brie Larson or Hollywood big wigs who paid Brie Larson a tenth of what anyone in the Best Actor Category was paid for their film.

For realz-- Room was a heartbreaking white movie and Brie Larson really does deserve the award.  This finally showcased her talent to the general public and it legitimately should be her.  The only competition she has, in my opinion, is Saoirse Ronan about the WHITE IRISH immigrant who came over to the US to start a new life.  Uhm.... fuck.  This looks bad. Yeah, damn, Academy, like I know it was only semi-on-purpose, but this shit starting to look intentional.

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Okay.  Finally we got a diverse movie in the mix with Creed.  Wait... what?!?! It's the ONLY white dude from Creed? Ah, goddamn it. Look, this is probably the most fuckbiscuit category. You left out TWO actors from Beasts of No Nation (Idris Elba and the kid) who turned in magnificent performances. But no... we got Christian Bale randomly selected from a fucking white ensemble film who wasn't even the BEST ONE FROM THE FILM. But, he did have a glass eye #fullretard. Oh, wait, there's another white ensemble film actor nominated in Mark Ruffalo who did no better or worse than anyone else acting around him including Michael Keaton? Oh, okay.  Yeah. These are must-haves.  Fuckers.

Who's Going To Win: Sylvester Stallone
Who Should Win: Sylvester Stallone/Tom Hardy or the bear from The Revenant proving that even ethnic animals only get cast playing thugs.

I was on the Stallone bandwagon for a good long while because he legit blew me away with his Rocky character for the seventh time. But, then I started to realize that this amazement probably stemmed from the fact that I forgot Sly could actually act. Then, I saw The Revenant a second time and Tom Hardy was the bee's tits. I felt hate for his character I've only felt a few times before. No one else (on the list) left me that emotionally scarred. He deserves it.  Sly will get it.

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

I think Oprah once said, "Damn it feels good to be a gangsta." Those words could not ring truer than they do for the category of Best Supporting Actress. I mean, you've got gangsta-ass Rachel McAdams who honestly blends in so well to her film Spotlight I forgot she was even in it. And Kate Winslet was able to recite Aaron Sorkin dialogue quickly just as he intended.  Then, there's Rooney Mara who plays a lesbian.  Oh, shit, Academy... a lesbian and a cross-dresser? I guess I should ease up on the bitterness of the ethnicity issues here, 'cause it looks like you already got it under control.

Who's Going To Win: Alicia Vikander
Who Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh or the tears of a thousand black people who weren't even asked to be in Steve Jobs.

This is the only major nominated movie that I didn't see. I was on my Oscar run seeing movie after movie day after day and The Danish Girl was the only one I didn't end up seeing.  After awhile I heard that the movie was verrrrrryyyyy 'meh' and the only reason to see it was for Vikander's performance in it. That's exactly how I felt about Redmayne's last movie The Theory of Everything.  I didn't like it at all, but he was great in it... which doesn't really mean I had to see it. So, I didn't see it. I'll see it eventually. She's apparently great, but Jennifer Jason Leigh as some crazy bitch outlaw HAD to have been a lot more entertaining and award-worthy.  I mean, she was a woman who kept getting punched out by dudes the entire movie and had a black eye the entire time.  This type of female abuse should be making these old ass Oscar voters just a little bit hard.

Best Director:

Adam McKay (The Big Short)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant)
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

If you had told me that the director of Anchorman and Stepbrothers would be among the crackers (and one Mexican) who were nominated for Best Director I would've laughed in your, supposedly, white face (I don't know many black people). However, dude directed a hell of a movie. He's one of the whiteys that really deserves to be on the list. Inarritu is the only non-white face in the bunch, but he won Best Director last year so now the Academy considers him an honorary white person.  They see no ethnicity with former winners. I feel like Abrahamson was a strange choice especially because they Academy missed their chance to give Spielberg or Ridley Scott another nomination.  They're like the director equivalents of Meryl Streep or J-Law.

Who's Going To Win: Alejandro Inarritu
Who Should Win: George Miller or Ava DuVernay for her wonderful directorial debut in last year's Selma... a film that was nominated WITHOUT A NOD TO IT'S BLACK FEMALE DIRECTOR! She should win this year or at least get an apology note. #racismisdead

I mean, it's probably going to be Inarritu because what he accomplished with The Revenant was nothing short of extraordinary... but dude... did you see Mad Max?? Dude came back thirty plus years later and re-made his OWN movie. Not only did he remake it, he made it better and crazier than the original. It was honestly one of the best movies of last year and was, in my opinion, the best directed movie of the last year.

Best Animated Feature:

Anomalisa
O Menino e o Mundo
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Omoide no Mani

While there was a significant amount of white animated movies, I have to give it to the Academy on this one because there were two foreign animated movies (that stand zero chance of winning) on the list. One from Asia and one from Mexico (I think... I did just enough research that I found the filmmakers names to be from Mexico and Asia... could not have been... I'm just channeling my inner Academy here). I do think, however, that The Peanuts Movie was a delightful little film honoring the once revered comic strip.  However, there was a black kid in the movie which may have hindered its chances. Then again, he was an animated black child... so does it really count?

What's Going To Win: Inside Out
What Should Win: Inside Out

Inside Out was, without a doubt, the best animated movie of 2015 by a long shot. It was emotionally resonant with legitimately anyone who has kids or anyone who has ever been a kid. It dealt with the colorful emotions (or as the Academy likes to refer to them as: emotions of color) of a little girl and having to deal with uprooting her life and moving to a new city. It's a gorgeous, near-perfect film and it deserves the award.  Especially because of it's incredibly diverse color scheme (then again, there were no brown emotions were there...?) Have I hit the racism nail on the head yet? #obviously

Other Predictions:

Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going To Win: Spotlight
What Should Win: Straight Outta Compton or the fact that you realize this is the only award nomination that movie got and its writers are white.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 
What's Going To Win: The Big Short
What Should Win: The Big Short or the fact that the Academy Awards are in its beginning phases of dying if they keep up what is a highly offensive class of nominations led by some seriously misguided and old fucking individuals.

How Many Times Chris Rock Will Call Out The Academy On Their Bullshit:
How Many Times He's Going To: A Lot
How Many Times He Should: More than that.

How Many Categories I'm Going To Pick Correctly: 
I'm Going To Get: 7/9
How Many I Should Get: 1/9 (They should surprise the hell out of everyone and give all the Oscars to Idris Elba)

Consensus:

The Oscars are careening downhill very quickly. If you're a white person who likes to take white bubble baths and bathe in your white privilege and think there was nothing wrong with the way this year's and even the last few year's Oscars have been handled, then this is the show to watch.  However, you are also probably voting for Donald Trump or Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz and you should hit yourself in the genitals several times with a power cord. If you are a culturally conscious person who prides him/herself in having an ethnically diverse background/friend group... you're probably not going to watch.  So, really the show is only going to be for those who are true cinephiles like myself... and I can tell you this... if they keep this up, even I won't be watching for much longer.