Big Peck's Cineflex Awards Edition V: Oscar Winner Predictions

Last year I predicted I'd get 8/10 of my predictions and I actually predicted that I'd predict that many. This year there's no way I'm going to get that many. This year is going to be an absolute shit show. This is the year where literally anything can happen and any movie could take away any piece of the gold and there's really no predicting what's going to go down. And usually that makes the Oscars fun. This year it's not. The reason there's no clear frontrunner (really) is because there was nothing in 2018 that stood out from the rest of the films released. As I said in my list of the best movies of 2018, there were a lot of good movies, but no real great ones. And the great ones were only great in comparison to the rest of the year. It was a lackluster year for movies, so it's going to be a lackluster Oscars this year... and it's not just the films nominated. It's everything else surrounding the Academy Awards. First, they gave the hosting job to hack comedian Kevin Hart. Then, some decade old homophobic tweets emerged (that we already knew existed anyway) and Hart was subsequently fired. Then maybe rehired, then definitely fired. So, they're going without a host. Then, there's the controversy over the Oscars giving out four awards during commercial breaks as if on a night that celebrates the best in Hollywood there are some awards that "just aren't as important". Thankfully, some of the Hollywood elite (including Tarantino, Scorsese, and Spike Lee) penned an angry letter demanding the awards get their time in the spotlight and the Academy reversed this decision reinforcing the fact that they don't give a shit about the awards. And yet, I'm still going to watch this inevitable trainwreck. Why? Because normally the Oscars are my Super Bowl (and this year's Oscar's will probably be as much of a dumpster fire as this year's actual Super Bowl) and it's because I'm so very, impossibly white, it's like my Kryptonite. So, without further adieu, here are my picks for this year's Oscar Travesty. (Don't put down any money in Vegas on these picks because they're honestly a shot in the dark).

Best Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Room
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

The Academy, who have the power and ability to nominate up to ten movies chose eight films. If you have ten spots, why not fill them with TEN SPOTS? They "conveniently" left out some wonderful movies like Eighth Grade, Leave No Trace, and First Reformed (it's even worse when you consider Bohemian Rhapsody got one of the spots). But all of these movies are just fine. None of them would really even be in contention any other year (maybe the year The Artist won and War Horse was nominated), but right now the frontrunner is Roma and what's really kind of shitty is that I enjoyed that movie the least of all the ones nominated. But it's looking like out of all of them, that's the one that's going to get the gold.

What's Going to Win: Roma
What Deserves to Win: Black Panther... The Favourite... Green Room... A Star is Born...

I didn't do a review of it because I only saw it about a week ago, but Roma was one of the slowest and most boring movies I've ever seen. I had high expectations because of all the clout surrounding it, but it nearly put me to sleep and I honestly couldn't see why everyone is jerking themselves off to it. I love Alfonso Cuaron as a director, but there's hardly a casual fan (hell, even an avid fan) of film that's going to enjoy this movie. It's an indie-house jerk fest with a message that people shouldn't be getting behind, but claim they like it because they think they're supposed to. The four "deserves" above deserve it more. But I don't think any of them really have a shot. And when Roma does indeed win Best Picture, the Academy can go back to wondering why people have stopped giving a shit about the Academy Awards, thus reinforcing how disconnected they are from people in "the real world".

Best Actor:

Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

The Best Actor category WAS going to be the one to watch this year. For having such lackluster movies, 2018 showcased some fantastic performances. When I first saw A Star is Born I figured Bradley Cooper as a lock because I don't think I'd seen as strong of a performance by an actor in several years. But then came Rami Malek's Freddie Mercury, then Viggo Mortensen in Green Book, then the unrecognizable Christian Bale in Vice and it was anyone's game. The Academy messed up big time with their fifth nomination. And while I'm sure Willem Dafoe is phenomenal in At Eternity's Gate (a movie I never saw/heard of until the nomination was announced), Ethan Hawke in First Reformed blew me away. He deserves to be up there and it's a travesty that he's not. However, the anticipation of the race between these acting juggernauts has dwindled to a small spark due to one actor winning everything this award's season.

Who's Going to Win: Rami Malek
Who Deserves to Win: All of them

Yes, Rami Malek's portrayal of Freddie Mercury has stolen the gold at nearly every awards show this season and has all but cancelled any other actor's chance of causing an upset. I genuinely believe that if I had an Oscar vote, I wouldn't have hesitated to give it to Cooper, but Malek does deserve it. Bohemian Rhaposdy is a cookie-cutter biopic that doesn't stray from typical structure and is as paint-by-numbers as you can get. But, you watch the movie for Malek's performance. It's so good you almost forget how uninspired the movie really is. Then, there's Christian Bale who deserves it not just for transforming his body to the lump of Chaney, but for actually becoming the dude and making you forget Christian Bale is a real person. Any of these studs deserve this award, but it's Malek who's certain to be the victor.

Best Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Coleman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to give an "expert" opinion about this category as I missed a few of the movies on this list and was unable to take in the performances of all of these fine actresses. Of the ones I did see, the nominations were certainly deserved. I believe the Academy, once again, overlooked Elsie Fisher from Eighth Grade who, in her first starring role, made me feel things I had never felt watching a movie before (mostly it was sheer and utter discomfort), but she was so great in that movie, not recognizing her performance is something irresponsibly overlooked by the Academy. However, it does give us hope that she's bound for great things. I wasn't able to see The Wife and I didn't see Can You Ever Forgive Me... though I really wanted to. But, there's one actress who has been getting the Best Actress award almost as much as Rami Malek...

Who's Going to Win: Glenn Close
Who Deserves to Win: Probably Glenn Close? Maybe Melissa McCarthy? Definitely Olivia Coleman.

Glenn Close is a wonderful actress who has given powerful performances in nearly everything she's ever been in... and has never won an Academy Award. Since I haven't seen The Wife this could be her "due" award or she could actually deserve it. It's honestly probably both. I love seeing Melissa McCarthy in here as she's garnered her first nomination with only her first ever foot into the dramatic pond. Olivia Coleman stole every scene from everyone else in The Favourite. I don't have any real strong feelings about Yalitza Aparicio. She was fine. She wasn't given much to do (other than look particularly melancholy) and given even less to say. But she was fine. And I don't know... Lady Gaga. She was good and her voice definitely contributed to making A Star is Born a quality movie, but I just don't feel her performance was strong enough for a nomination. In any case, look for Close to finally get her due on Oscar night.

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlackKklansman)
Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Usually the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories are pretty tough to gauge and most of the time all five nominees could run away with the award. This is true in the Actress category, but Supporting Actor has a weird five going on here. While Mahershala Ali and Sam Elliot (and from what I've read) Richard E. Grant all deserve to be here... Adam Driver and Sam Rockwell are puzzling nominations. First Driver... while he was very good in BlackKklansman, he wasn't the one in the movie who stood out from the rest. John David Washington (Denzel's son) was perfect in that movie and probably should've garnered a nom himself. But to put Driver on a list of the best while ignoring JDW... it's a little bit strange. And Sam Rockwell, while he was great as W... was only in the movie maybe ten minutes and certainly didn't outshine Steve Carell's Donald Rumsfeld. So, the addition of these two actors while withholding others who deserved the noms over them are quite puzzling. In the end, it doesn't matter because there's only one dude on this list who is a bonafide shoo-in...

Who's Going to Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Deserves to Win: Mahershala Ali

While there has been some controversy surrounding Green Book (which I still think is a great movie), Mahershala Ali's performance (like all of his performances) makes the movie as good as it is. It also helps that he's just as good on this season's True Detective, keeping him in the limelight of the Academy voters. This one is almost as good of a lock as you can have this year at the Oscars. He will take the prize. However, if he somehow did get overlooked, don't stray too far from Sam Elliot's name. This is a dude who has been around Hollywood forever. And he's always seemed like a one-note pony. It's a very entertaining pony, but he put up a once-in-a-lifetime performance in A Star is Born. The dude made me tear up more during his heartfelt scene than I did at any other point in the movie. If somehow the voters decide not to award Ali his second award in two years, look for Elliot to take it. (But, that's not going to happen.)

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Now, unlike Best Supporting Actor, this one is much closer to call. All of these ladies put in exceptional work in their respective roles and films and could easily win the award. And it would be deserved. It's a little weird that the Academy considered Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz's performances as "supporting" when the movie treats both of them (and Olivia Coleman) equally as leads. It's hard to understand how the committee decided to break them up the way they did as all three could've been in the Best Actress category or all three in the Best Supporting Actress category. However, I don't think it would've increased or decreased the chances for any of them because there's one who barely outshines the rest here.

Who's Going to Win: Regina King
Who Deserves to Win: Regina King

Regina King has been a Hollywood grinder for over two decades. I still recall seeing her in Jerry Maguire twenty-three years ago and realizing how great she was... and still is. While If Beale Street Could Talk was a little slow and stale at some points, she lit up the screen every scene she was in. She deserves the award, not just for this one performance, but for a lifetime of wonderful work that, in theory, will get recognized FINALLY by the Academy on Sunday. If there's a dark horse in this race, however, I couldn't pinpoint who it would be. Adams, Stone, Weisz could all have a legitimate shot at taking it - if Regina King, in some other unholy dimension wasn't nominated. Marina de Tavira probably won't though. Just sayin.

Best Director:

Spike Lee (BlackKklansman)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)


So... Academy... you're telling me that you're going to throw a director on the list of Best Directors who is up for an actual gold statue... but their movie isn't on the Best Picture list? What is this fuckery? Now, I haven't seen Cold War, but it's already a mess if the Best Director category has a name that the Best Picture category doesn't. I'm sorry Pawel Pawlikowski... but Bradley Cooper deserves your spot. And you know what... for that matter... I love Adam McKay. I think he's great, but the direction of Vice wasn't what stood out to me in that movie. You know what movie did? Black Panther. So, Ryan Coogler... you get McKay's spot. And Cuarón... my dislike for Roma stands, so you lose your spot to Bo Burnham for Eighth Grade. And that's how it's gonna go, ya hear me?

Who's Going to Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Who Deserves to Win: Spike Lee

Give it to Spike Lee, damn it! He deserves it. Much like Regina King, he's been a workhorse with movies that are both underrated, and with something culturally relevant to say. But since the Academy are comprised of a bunch of old, stuck up, white people, he's never been given his due. Give it to him. Was BlackKklansman the best movie of the year? No, not really. Was it even the best of Spike Lee's career? No. But he's due. Give it to him! The Academy are going to give it to Cuarón because it's just the type of movie the Academy thinks it should award, when really it isn't. Give it to Spike Lee and... do the right thing.... eh? Eh????

Best Animated Feature:

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Finally, it's a year that Pixar is going to take a backseat to the rest of the nominations. It wasn't a particularly great year for animated movies, but other than Incredibles 2 (which was awful) the rest seem to be placed exactly where they should be. For most of the year, I probably would've been on the Isle of Dogs bandwagon, thinking nothing else in 2018 could beat it. I mean, it really is one of Wes Anderson's best movies as of late. But it's not as good as...

What's Going to Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
What Deserves to Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Man isn't just the best animated movie of the year (by far), it's legitimately the best Spider-Man movie in existence. I know that's not hard to do since it's been rebooted a thousand times, but they finally got a grasp on how to do a Spider-Man movie - do it as animation. It's almost too goofy to be a live action (though the last live action one and the one in the Avengers movies have mostly remedied this). Wreck-It Ralph 2 was decent, but nowhere near the quality of the first movie. And, like I said, Incredibles 2 was just as slow and boring and uninteresting as the first movie. This one is pretty close to a lock (unless there's just some overwhelming Pixar bias here), so you can feel good about this pick on your Oscar ballot.


Other Predictions:


Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Roma
What Deserves to Win: Any of the other nominated screenplays

Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: BlackKklansman
What Deserves to Win: BlackKklansman

Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: Roma (which is going to piss me off when it gets both)
What Deserves to Win: Uhhhh...... Cold War?

Best Documentary Feature:
What's Going to Win: Free Solo
What Deserves to Win: Won't You Be My Neighbor (even though it wasn't even nominated)


How Many Categories I'm Guaranteed To Pick Correctly: 8/11


Consensus:

I'm sure most of you aren't even going to watch the Oscars. This year full of controversy, bad decisions, and movies the general public don't give two shits about isn't enticing enough to draw the normal crowd. I'm sure the numbers will be down and the event will be as bad as we're all assuming that it will be. But if the Academy can make some correct decisions (like giving awards to Regina King, Spike Lee, Mahershala Ali, Spider-Man and not giving Roma everything) it might not be too terrible. Let's just get through this one so we can get excited again for next year's even worse night of glitz, glamour, and catastrophe.