After
#Oscarssowhite, the old fucks behind the Academy Awards decided to step
up their game a little bit. They might have even over-compensated
(because seriously...
Hidden Figures wasn't that good). So, the
score from last year is 8 out of 9 picks I secured. Okay, 7.5 picks
seeings as how I couldn't decide between
The Revenant and
Spotlight for Best Picture and
Spotlight won.
But in a year that released a cavalcade of seriously underwhelming
movies... we did up the diversity factor. It wasn't just a white-washed
moviefest in 2016, even though the movie with the most nominations ONLY
white people are going to enjoy. So, we made more movies starring and
about people of color in order to shove something large and pointy up
the asses of the Academy and we elected a literal cheese puff into
office. We are a seriously indecisive and dumb ass country. Anyway,
here are my picks for this year's Academy Awards in case you're putting
any money down in Vegas and you want some rock solid picks.
Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By The Sea
Moonlight
Like I said, the movies this year were a bit underwhelming (not like the year
Slumdog Millionaire won or the year
The Artist won--
seriously go check out the nominees for those years) but the Academy
did a pretty good job of selecting the best movies of the year. I
wouldn't have nominated
Hidden Figures, and replaced it with
A Monster Calls,
The Nice Guys or
Don't Think Twice, but it was nice to see
Hell or High Water make the list. All of these films minus
Hidden Figures and
Lion
made my top ten movies of the year list. And while all of these movies
were great in their own right, there are really only two clear cut
favorites/front-runners in my mind.
What's Going to Win: La La Land
What Should Win: Moonlight
I'm not trying to take anything away from
La La Land because
it's a great movie. But, come one Academy. One year after everyone
hashtagged you about how much you DON'T appreciate black people, they
give you a movie about a GAY BLACK DUDE. It couldn't be more simple to
select a winner. Remember a couple years ago when there was a movie
about SLAVERY and you were like-- uhhhhhhh.... yeahhhhhh.... we should
probs get on that one. Here's another one! In all seriousness, though,
Moonlight was legitimately the best movie of 2016. While
The Nice Guys was definitely my favorite movie,
Moonlight was
the absolute best. It's a beautiful film that deserves all of the
recognition it is getting and doesn't really deserve to lose out to a
movie with two signing and dancing white people whose only source of
conflict is that they haven't 'made it' in Hollywood yet. It's going to
go to
La La Land, and if it does, it's certainly deserving. But,
Moonlight is
the movie that should be crushing all of the compettion around it.
However, the only other times a movie has received 14 nominations like
LLL has... they were
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and
Titanic, so....
Best Actor:
Casey Affleck (
Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (
Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (
La La Land)
Viggo Mortenson (
Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (
Fences)
Certainly a decent year when it comes to acting. Notice it's primarily white, but then again all of the fantastic stars of
Moonlight all
had basically supporting roles. If I could combine all four of the
supporting roles in that film into one nomination, it would be a
shoo-in. This category was pretty well represented other than the fact
that Michael Keaton got stiffed for
The Founder. It was a bit of
a quiet movie that didn't get a ton of publicity, so it kind of fell by
the wayside, but he deserves to be up there just as much as any of the
others. In fact, I'd probably remove Ryan Gosling from the list in favor
of Keaton. Not that Gosling wasn't great in his role, it just wasn't as
genuinely impressive as Keaton's was.
Who's Going to Win: Casey Affleck
Who Deserves to Win: Affleck OR Denzel
It's a cold day in movie Hell when
anyone
has a shot against Denzel Washington. He's the Meryl Streep of the
acting category (more for the fact that he's better than all... not so
much the amount he's won which is astoundingly small). But, damn, if
Casey Affleck didn't kill it in
Manchester by the Sea. His
performance was so subtle, and yet in your face. It was a remarkable
performance from someone who looks like he's about to be outed as a
complete prick. Lifestyle choices aside... he's definitely the
frontrunner for this category. If there was a surprise and Denzel took
it, he'd be MORE than deserving. But, if Affleck's latest controversies
don't catch up to him and influence the voters, look for him to take
it.
Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert (
Elle)
Ruth Negga (
Loving)
Natalie Portman (
Jackie)
Emma Stone (
La La Land)
Meryl Streep (
Florence Foster Jenkins)
Ohhhhhhhhhhh
Jesus. Lookie there. It's Meryl Stree once again getting the nom. The
only surprise about this list is that Jennifer Lawrence finally missed a
year. Unfortunately for her the only film she was in this year was the
pretty creepy and incredibly underwhelming
Passengers. I'm sad to
say that I've only actually seen one of these films, so I can't exactly
speak to who should be on the list and who shouldn't. I mean, it's
pretty clear that Meryl isn't going to win this year and it's really
only because she is the best actress ever that she made the cut. But,
the only names I can see missing from this list are Annette Benning in
20th Century Women and Amy Adams in
Arrival or
Nocturnal Animals.
Who's Going to Win: Emma Stone
Who Deserves to Win: Natalie Portman
Again, I haven't seen all the movies, and I haven't even actually seen
Jackie,
but everything I've heard/read suggests that Portman deserves this more than anyone else. However, due to poor box office performance, she lost the steam she needed in order to win her second statue. Emma Stone has gained serious momentum over the last month, and yes, the last song she performs in
La La Land all but solidifies the fact that she's probably going to take this one.
Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali (
Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (
Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (
Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (
Lion)
Michael Shannon (
Nocturnal Animals)
Another
solid list of actors on this list. I can't think of anyone that has
been neglected for this category. It is nice to see that the Oscars gave
the bird to the Golden Globes and nominated the actor who truly
deserved to be nominated in this category from that film-- Michael
Shannon. It was sort of strange to give Aaron Taylor-Johnson the nom for
the GG's when it was Shannon who really stole the show. I will say that
though it wasn't the toughest year to narrow down the best
performances, the Academy is spot on with this category.
Who's Going to Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Deserves to Win: Mahershala Ali
Jeff Bridges was fantastic in
Hell or High Water, but it wasn't deserving of the top spot. I look at it more as the "quirky old man" award, like when Alan Arkin won for
Little Miss Sunshine. Lucas Hedges gave a stellar performance and Dev Patel made a deal with someone because, while he was amazing in
Lion, he was definitely a lead role, not a supporting one.
But Ali was perfect in his role in
Moonlight.
He's only in it for a good twenty minutes or so, but he commands the
screen in every second the camera is on him. I really hope that there's a
huge upset and
Moonlight takes the majority of the awards. That would really show 'em! (Who? I have no idea.)
Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis (
Fences)
Naomie Harris (
Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (
Lion)
Octavia Spencer (
Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (
Manchester by the Sea)
Whoooooaaaaa
Academy. Looks like our #oscarssowhite hashtags really got to you this
year, huh? Three African-American actresses nominated in the same
category with only two white chicks?! Are you apologizing, compensating
for something, or have you actually figured it out? This was another
great list, but the one perplexing nominee, to me, is Spencer. She was
fine in
Hidden Figures, but didn't even come close to something
mindblowing. If anything, Taraji P. Henson is the one who deserves to
have her name on this list. She blew me away. Spencer's role, while
good, was a very small background role that didn't really deserve a spot
on the list.
Who's Going to Win: Viola Davis
Who Deserves to Win: Viola freakin' Davis
Dude.
There is NO way anyone else on this list takes the gold this year.
Viola Davis gave the best performance in a movie hands down. I'm not
just talking actresses. I'm talking any movie with anyone in it this
entire year... Viola Davis is the Queen. If there was to be an upset--
which there won't be-- Michelle Williams is a distant second. While her
role is small, the last scene between her and Casey Affleck will chill
you to the bone. (Have I used enough cliches yet?)And I have to do a shout out to my girl Nicole Kidman. Heartbreaking! Had me near tears. But guess what lil homies-- Viola Davis brought the muhf**kin house DOWN! Viola Davis WILL take
this category. No question.
Best Director:
Denis Villeneuve (
Arrival)
Mel Gibson (
Hacksaw Ridge)
Damien Chazelle (
La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (
Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (
Moonlight)
So
far this has been the most controversial category. A lot of people
still haven't forgiven Mel Gibson for his
anti-Jewish/anti-woman/anti-everyone rants back in the day. Yet, we're
not up in arms about Casey Affleck?? (Google it... he's most likely a
piece of shit). I probably wouldn't have changed anything about these
five other than maybe tossed in Denzel again for the double nom whammy.
What he did with
Fences... how he made a theatrical movie feel
like you're sitting and watching a real-life stage play was phenomenal.
Other than that, everyone deserves to be here... including Mel.
Who's Going to Win: Damien Chazelle
Who Deserves to Win: Barry Jenkins
This
one is TOUGH. The Academy has been very random with their Best Director
winners the past few years. Most of the time if a movie was going to
win Best Picture, the person who Directed that movie would always win.
This hasn't been the case lately. However, I am sticking with the format
of old because while Barry Jenkins would be the new choice if
La La Land takes
Best Picture, Hollywood loves musical movies about Hollywood. And, what
he did is very impressive, especially the opening single-shot sequence
of the film. He's almost assuredly going to win, but I'd still give it
to Jenkins.
Moonlight forever.
Best Animated Feature:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Is
it or is it not just a tad bit shocking that Pixar didn't make the cut?
I mean, I've only seen two of these films and while I've heard very
good things about
Kubo and I've even heard rumblings about
The Red Turtle, not only have I heard literally nothing about
My Life as a Zucchini, but
Finding Dory was a fantastic sequel. Other than the
Toy Story sequels, Pixar hasn't really been the gold standard for their sequels with
Cars and
Monsters University. But, I would say that
Finding Dory certainly
deserved a spot here. However, it is nice to see that Pixar isn't
entirely infallible. If it has enough good competition, it isn't exactly
always a shoo-in.
What's Going to Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
What Deserves to Win: Zootopia
Like I said... I've only seen two of the five films nominated, but
Zootopia was
brilliant. The reason I believe it doesn't stand a chance is that it
came out wayyyy back in March of 2016. Too much time (almost an entire
year) has gone by and people have forgotten the impact that film had not
just on kids but on everyone. Then again, I've heard nothing but great,
positive buzz about
Kubo and how spectacular it is supposed to
be. It's actually been enough that I've gone from "meh... looks decent,
but not my thing" to "maybe I should actually check this one out."
Also... don't discount
Moana. If the Academy really wants Lin Manuel-Miranda to EGOT... this could be the sleeper pick.
Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: La La Land
What Deserves to Win: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Moonlight
What Deserves to Win: Moonlight
Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: Toni Erdmann
What Deserves to Win: Probably that. Didn't see any of them. That's just the only one I know people are tuggin' their dicks to.
Chance of Lin-Manuel Miranda Being the Youngest Person to EGOT: 60%
How Many Categories I'm Guaraneed to Pick Correctly: 7/10
Consensus:
If we look at the track record of past Academy Awards, then we know that this year is going to be a
La La Land sweep.
Only twice before has there been 14 nominations for a single film in a
single year and that film normally walks away with the majority of the
categories they're up for. Crazily enough,
La La Land is able to
creep into music, sound, costume design, acting, directing, writing and
it's all stellar. If it wins each of these categories, it's certainly
deserving. I would just love to see
Moonlight, the best movie of last year and the riskiest move that Academy has made in a long time. Sure, they gave
Hidden Figures the apology nominations this year and a lot more credit than it actually deserved... but
Moonlight deserves
every category and it's only guaranteed one is Adapted Screenplay. 2016
was a lame duck year in almost every cinematic aspect, so I'm expecting
good things from 2017. However, when that happens, a lot more movies
miss the cut and a lot more people are left without any recognition (and
the Academy has a very strange way of awkwardly making sure these are
generally people of color). Every movie this year, while not
super-Scorese/Spielberg-exciting, were all very deserving and whoever
takes an award in each of the categories is definitely more deserving
than some of the people who have taken the gold in the past.