Last year I gave my predictions for 11 categories. I then predicted that I would accurately predict 8 of the 11 categories correctly. My prediction came true. I only got 8 right. And I got a lot of the big ones wrong. I didn't even get Best Picture right last year. But last year was a shit show. Not the La La Land being announced instead of Moonlight shit show, but a shit show nonetheless. This year doesn't seem to be any different. The lack of diversity - especially when it comes to non-white men, or any women - is still amazing. And I really only watch this show because it's a tradition I established as a kid as the one thing I do every year with my mother. But until the Academy rids themselves of these old, white baby boomers - #oscarssowhite isn't going to change. The bright side of this year is there were amazing movies. So much better than last year's malaise of the film equivalent to greek yogurt. There were several fantastic films this year that it's unfortunate only one person/film can win in each category. I feel a lot more confident in my picks this year, so if you're a betting person - here's your guaranteed LOCKS! LET'S DO THIS!!!
Best Picture:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
I was lucky enough to see every movie on this list and this year has accomplished something I don't believe has ever happened in my lifetime (or at least since they've expanded the nominee list to 10): I thought every single one of these movies were fantastic. Toss Uncut Gems in there and you have pretty close to my ten favorite movies of the entire year. I personally loved The Irishman most in 2019, but that's because my Pacino/Pesci/DeNiro/Scorsese love is unmatched. I know people complained about the length, but I kept wishing it was longer. I know it's not the best movie of the year, but it was great. Same with Ford v Ferrari, which strangely won me over as being a really, really fun movie that I'd love to watch again. The problem again is the Academy gets ten slots and still has only used nine. Where is Uncut Gems? Where is Avengers: Endgame? Where's Knives Out and Booksmart? You've got the ten... use the damn ten!
What's Going to Win: 1917
What Deserves to Win: Parasite
Please don't get me wrong here. 1917 is an AMAZING movie. And when it wins, I'll be totally happy. It's beautiful and terrifying and heartbreaking and a damn near perfect war movie that puts you in the middle of what it was like to serve. But Parasite is the clear winner here, right? While I was blown away by 1917, Parasite stuck with me. Even after a second viewing - it's stuck with me. I know most of these voting honkies don't want a "foreign" film to win the Best 'Merican Film category (that's why we have separate categories), so I doubt it's going to double up. But it should. Parasite should break the ground where it wins Best Foreign Film and Best Picture. Sadly, it won't. And honestly, any of these movies could win. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could be Tarantino's Revenant pick. It's not his best movie, but he's earned a Best Picture award, hasn't he? Jojo Rabbit was so touching and hilarious. Marriage Story was heartbreaking with wonderful performances. Joker - which I still believe to be a bit overrated - is a solid indictment of the way this country treats those with mental illnesses. Little Women was a terrific adaptation of a property that's already been done as much as A Star is Born. All of these movies would've easily taken the gold last year. It's just unfortunate only one can leave with the award.
Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Slightly upset at the Academy for intentionally dissing Adam Sandler. Like, we all know he's basically done it to himself with his slog of sludge he's put out the last fifteen years. But a great performance is a great performance. And Sandler blew me away in Uncut Gems. He was phenomenal. He was able to take a despicable character who makes literally all the wrong choices and elicit empathy from the audience. And yet... he got no love. It's a shame. Other snubs include randomly not nominating Robert DeNiro when his two other co-stars were given noms. Eddie Murphy missing out as Dolemite. And poor Taron Edgerton. He was a magnificent Elton John. But Bohemian Rhapsody fatigue had already caught up to voters. Other than that, I assume the rest of the performances were up to Oscar par as I've only seen three of the five movies.
Who's Going to Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Who Deserves to Win: Joaquin Phoenix
It doesn't matter if I'd only seen Joker - Phoenix is a lock. Like a 155% lock. Bet your life savings on this one because there's no way in hell he doesn't take home the gold. And it's not a popularity issue either - he deserves it. We've seen how the character of The Joker can transform an actor into greatness (Nicholson, Ledger) or how you can bastardize the character (Leto). Luckily, Phoenix joins the former category. And while Arthur Fleck may not even be the legitimate Joker character (a theory is that he "inspired" the man who will one day become the Batman villain), that doesn't mean that Phoenix didn't give us the top 2 best Joker performance we've seen since the character's inception. Had the film failed or his performance not been up to snuff - I'd have given the gold to Driver. The argument in Marriage Story alone is worth the award for both him and ScarJo. Thankfully he's still got time.
Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)
I haven't seen all of these films, but from what I've heard/read/seen, the list is pretty accurate. The shocker here was Cynthia Erivo from Harriet. Harriet was critically mediocre and didn't do much to move the box office needle. But she's a great actress. The biggest snub in this category is absolutely Lupita Nyong'o from Us. She played dual roles and she was creepy as hell. It doesn't help that Us came out just about a year ago because if it had been in voters' minds, she should've been an absolute lock. Other than that, it appears they got the nominees right on this one.
Who's Going to Win: Renée Zellweger
Who Deserves to Win: Any of them
The reason I'm picking Zellweger is because she's taken home the gold in multiple other awards ceremonies this year and appears to be the frontrunner. However, I cannot confirm whether or not she deserves the Oscar because I haven't seen Judy. I've never been a Zellweger fan and I kinda sorta avoided the movie - but I've heard she's great. My preconceived notion of how I feel about her may cloud my judgement on the issue, however. If it were me voting, I would probably edge Saoirse Ronan over the rest. She was so great in Little Women. She carried herself in a way that you could see her toughness was a thin veil over her vulnerabilities. It was wonderful to behold. ScarJo was great as well. I gave Adam Driver the props for the "argument scene" in Marriage Story, but it was just as much her scene as it was his. Charlize was perfect as Megyn Kelly - but we've seen better from her. All of these brilliant and talented women deserve this prize. There is no one clear winner here. And I'll be happy if it goes to any of them not named Renée.
Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time in Hollywood)
Go back and look at the Best Actor nominees. You've got a couple of A-listers on there, but it's not your normal ragtag group of dudes. Now look at the Best Supporting Actor nominees. These are the A-listers. These are the go-to names to headline movies. What in the God-loving hell are these guys doing in supporting roles? They're all getting older, but isn't it just crazy to see these five names in a list of actors who were only in supporting roles? Shit, Tom Hanks was a supporting character as Mr. Rogers in a movie about Mr. Rogers!!! Any of these guys could win based on their performances alone, but only one is the surefire winner here.
Who's Going to Win: Brad Pitt
Who Deserves to Win: Brad Pitt
I loved The Irishman. It was my favorite movie of 2019. I genuinely think that Al Pacino is the greatest actor of all time and his performance in The Irishman absolutely blew me away. Joe Pesci was a close second. To see him pulled out of retirement for that role was a delight. He can retire now having completed one of the best movies in his entire filmography. But Brad Pitt deserves the win. It might not be his greatest performance or his greatest role- but this is more of a lifetime achievement Oscar (much like Leo's Revenant win). And give it up to Quentin Tarantino for being able to write supporting characters. Holy shit. His last few movies have yielded Christoph Waltz TWO Best Supporting Actor awards (deservedly so). But Pitt is so much fun in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. He's hilarious, he's terrifying, he's absolutely JACKED. He brings the much-needed levity and personality to the movie that wouldn't have worked without him. So, just give him the Oscar already. He should've already had a few by now.
Best Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
This category is the perfect example of #oscarssowhite. Reason being is there wasn't a performance by a woman all year that was as talked about and heralded as highly as Jennifer Lopez's performance in Hustlers. She was great. And while I don't think it was strong enough to win the award - it was certainly strong enough to get a nomination. Instead, we got two nominations that really didn't deserve to be on the list over J-Lo. First, I love Florence Pugh. She made a huge splash in 2019, but her performance in Little Women was just... decent. Her performance in Midsommar was much stronger, I thought. And then there's Margot Robbie, who was great in Bombshell, but I didn't think she stood out over the rest of them. Jennifer Lopez should've taken one of those spots.
Who's Going to Win: Laura Dern
Who Deserves to Win: Kathy Bates
Okay, okay, okay. Hold on. Let me explain myself here. I LOVE Laura Dern. I'm so happy she keeps popping up everywhere. She's a phenomenal actress and one who deserves to be on this list - and when she wins - she will have deserved that too! But just not for this role. It's such a brief role and all she's really doing is bringing over her Renata character from Big Little Lies. I don't know what all the hullabaloo is about with this particular performance when we got to see a hell of a lot more of it from two seasons of great television. But Kathy Bates... she absolutely broke my heart. She has no chance of winning since no one actually saw Richard Jewell but me... but she literally broke my heart in that role. She's perfect and it's one of the better, softer performances of her career. I saw something new in Bates. The same goes with ScarJo in Jojo Rabbit. What a wonderful performance to show us that she's just a couple movies away from taking home a bunch of awards.
Best Director:
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
There were absolutely no women nominated for Best Director. Again. None. The guy who directed Road Trip and The Hangover 2 got a nomination. But no women. No Greta Gerwig for Little Women. No Lulu Wang for The Farewell. No Lorene Scafaria for Hustlers. No Marielle Heller for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. All dudes. That's all I have to say about that.
Who's Going to Win: Quentin Tarantino
Who Deserves to Win: Bong Joon-ho
This one here is my long shot, money bet. There's been a strange trend at the Oscars the last decade. Normally it goes that whoever takes home the gold for Best Director will take home the gold for Best Picture as well. But five of the last eight years the Best Director and Best Picture films have been different. There's a high probability that Sam Mendes will win because 1917 is going to win Best Picture and his direction is one of the biggest reasons why that movie will win. But Tarantino hasn't ever won it. He's won twice for Screenplay - but never directing. And voters really love Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. So... I'm taking the risky bet here - one that may pay off big time if I were a betting man - and saying that while I still believe 1917 to be the victor... Tarantino takes home the gold for Directing. My hope is I'm wrong on both counts and Bong Joon-ho takes it. Parasite is above and beyond better than both of the aforementioned films.
Best Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Once again no love for The Lego Movie. It was subbed a few years ago for some seriously unknown reason and now The Lego Movie: The Second One is missing from the list as well. Not sure how/why the Academy hates Legos, but I guess that's just what we have to deal with these days. It's also pretty amazing that Frozen II didn't make the list considering it's the highest grossing animated movie of all time. but I didn't see it. So it might be shit.
What's Going to Win: Toy Story 4
What Deserves to Win: Toy Story 4 (or Klaus)
Toy Story 4 did something very few movies have been able to do: produce the fourth entry of a series and make it almost as good as the rest of the series. Toy Story 3, in my opinion, is a perfect movie and the perfect end to the series. But if they HAD to make a fourth one, they did it right with Toy Story 4. And once again, Pixar reigns supreme. However, Klaus was a wonderful surprise. Only reason I'm not giving it to Klaus is that the first fifteen minutes of that movie are rough. I was very close to turning it off due to how obnoxious it was. But I kept going because I'd heard through word of mouth how great it was and I'm glad I did. But, boy... the beginning... woof.
Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Parasite
What Deserves to Win: Parasite
Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Jojo Rabbit
What Deserves to Win: Jojo Rabbit
Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: Parasite
What Deserves to Win: Parasite
How Many Categories I'm Going To Pick Correctly: 9/10
Overall Consensus:
The Oscars still have a lot of growing to do. And that's saying something considering this is the 92nd ceremony. There needs to be a lot more inclusion or the show needs to be done away with entirely. This year has been easier than most years to predict and don't be surprised if I go 10/10 this year. These are mostly educated guesses - which is different than most years when they're just straight up shots in the dark. Enjoy the show and let's hope for a more progressive list of nominees in the years to come.
