Hit a bit of bad luck last year with only 6 predictions being correct out of 10. I mean, I guess we could say 7 because I had La La Land winning Best Picture and it TECHNICALLY did win for a solid two minutes. This year is going to be much worse. Usually the Oscars are difficult to pick because there are a clear two to three frontrunners, but any of them could win anything so it's the luck of the draw. Of the nine movies nominated for Best Picture (and I've now seen all of them), seven of them are amazing, fantastic, deserve-to-win type films. 2017 was an astonishing year for movies. I mean, only in February did we realize we had probably the best movie we were going to see all year in Get Out (which thankfully was recognized by the Academy, though it probably won't win anything). Then in early summer we had Dunkirk, thinking we had a shoo-in for Best Picture. Then followed everything else. Sure, you've got your Oscar-bait films like Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread, but 2017 was about unique filmmaking voices and talents making great movies. I'll be lucky to get 6/10 this year.
Best Picture:
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Look at this list! Almost any other year, nearly all of them could be the lead contender for Best Picture. It's almost bad luck for these movies to have come out in the same year. Lady Bird, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Get Out, Three Billboards... these are great movies that all deserve the award, but all but one will be outshined by the winner. This is the first year where I don't think the Academy forgot a movie. I think all were deserved (in their own right), however if I had my say, I would make one tiny move-- I probably would replace either Phantom Thread or Darkest Hour with I, Tonya. But other than that, they made the right call. It's going to be a tight race with Three Billboards and The Shape of Water with Lady Bird coming in as the dark horse, but I'm confident(ish) in my prediction:
What's Going to Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Deserves to Win: Three Billboards, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water
THIS is the tough category my friends. This one. Right now the projections for Best Picture have Three Billboards neck and neck with The Shape of Water and every other day Variety or The Wrap or Deadline or any number of movie-centric writing has them flip-flopping for Best Picture. The Shape of Water has the definite edge right now. It won Best Picture at both the Producer's Guild and the Director's Guild... and normally the film that wins those... wins the Oscar. But, I just have a feeling about Three Billboards. If The Shape of Water wins, I won't be upset-- but I also won't be surprised. I honestly thought right around awards season, the contenders would be Three Billboards, Get Out, and Dunkirk, but the latter two have kinda fizzled out. So, right now, it feels like it's down to two. I hope I get it right because to me, not only was Three Billboards a superior movie, it legitimately was the best movie of the year.
Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
This is a solid list. I mean, any category that features Daniel Day-Lewis, Gary Oldman AND Denzel means that there were some solid performances by male actors in a single year. There were even two newcomers. Even though I agree that Chalamet was pretty good in Call Me By Your Name, it's the third performance I've seen him give and I'm just not that impressed by him. I'm not a fan and I'm not sure why. Kaluuya was sensational in Get Out as he freakin' NAILED that one-tear scene. That alone would garner an award from me. As far as snubs go... Tom Hanks is definitely missing from the list, but it's not a stretch to see why. He was good in The Post but he's been better. The one that's difficult to wrap my head around is James Franco. Before the #MeToo movement, Franco would have the top spot and be a genuine contender. Regardless of his actions and what you think of the guy, he knocked his portrayal of Tommy Wiseau out of the park. However, this does not mean that Franco the PERSON deserves ANY recognition anymore.
Who's Going to Win: Gary Oldman
Who Deserves to Win: Gary Oldman
This is Oldman's award. It's a solid list of actors, but there's really only one performance among them that truly stands out and it's Gary Oldman. The movie itself, to me at least, was a real snoozefest (that even Oldman couldn't save), but there's no denying his portrayal of Churchill was the best of the year. Everyone thought that DDL was a shoo-in due to the fact that apparently Phantom Thread is to be his last movie forever. He's already got three... could he be the only one for four? Nope. Not this time. And he was phenomenal in the role... they all were. But you can't tangle with that fat suit and a movie that just drips white hot Oscar bait.
Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Take a second and drink in this list of five extraordinary actresses. Think about each film and each performance given be every single one of them. I honest to God can not remember a list this perfect when legitimately EVERY SINGLE ONE gave an Oscar-worthy portrayal. I'm proud of each and every single one of these women. I'm so very impressed by them, I'd like to eliminate the Best Actor category this year and be able to give an extra award to one of these women. Holy shit were they all perfect. It's seriously a shame that only one of them get to win. The only snub I can think of is Michelle Williams for All the Money in the World, and even then her performance in that movie is still sub par compared to the five women on the list. I hope this trend of writing amazing female roles continues and we get to see the Actresses severely outshine the actors for years to come.
Who's Going to Win: Frances McDormand
Who Deserves to Win: Frances McDormand AND THE REST OF THEM
Even though this race is the tightest in all of the categories, I have no doubt that McDormand will win. It will be highly deserved and I can not wait to see her crazy speech. She's a firecracker of a woman who plays the troubled and angry Mildred Hayes. The movie is not an easy one to sit through, but I could watch the movie every day just for her character alone. A close second, for me, would be Margot Robbie, though she's lost a lot of steam and the second place contender at the moment is Sally Hawkins who manages to turn in just as much of an emotionally resonant performance as the rest of them, even though she never utters a single word. Ronan is perfect in Lady Bird and I see bright things for her future. And Streep... well... Streep will always get that fifth spot. This just isn't the year for her to take the gold again. It's going to McDormand.
Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Much like the Best Actress category, this category is a sadly (and amazingly) one that is TOUGH. Here are five actors who gave outstanding performances, who, in most other years, would easily win. And not just them, either. Armie Hammer definitely deserved a nomination for Call Me By Your Name, but in a class this outstanding someone had to be left out. It's a shame that only one of these guys can actually take home the gold because a piece should go home with each of them. However, there is one who, by the tiniest of hairs, does stand out above all the rest.
Who's Going to Win: Sam Rockwell
Who Deserves to Win: Sam Rockwell
Even if it's not the best performance of his entire career (emotionally and comedically I say it's damn near close), Sam Rockwell has been the underrated character actor in Hollywood for far too long. During his acceptance speech at the Golden Globes he made a joke about how happy he is that people are actually seeing a movie he's in and it's a damn travesty. He's one of the most likable actors in recent memory and the dude should be a STAR at this point. An Oscar definitely wouldn't hurt his chances with that. Look, Richard Jenkins made me feel things I didn't know I could feel and Dafoe and Harrelson were wonderful as well (and Plummer was a hell of a Kevin Spacey), but Rockwell deserves this award. He deserves it.
Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Okay... this is a strange list. I agree with the five ladies on the list (though I haven't seen Mudbound, I've just heard how great Mary J. is in it). I do worry a little bit that the Academy is nominating Octavia Spencer every time she's in a movie now so they're not called out for #oscarssowhite any longer. She absolutely deserves a nomination for The Shape of Water -- much more so than her nom for Hidden Figures. Let's just make sure these names are deserved and not obligatory. Meryl Streep gets the obligatory nomination literally every year, we don't need more than one. But again, it's a solid list. Holly Hunter would've made my five for The Big Sick, but other than that, I can live with these names.
Who's Going to Win: Allison Janney
Who Deserves to Win: Allison Janney OR Laurie Metcalf
It's either of them. Seriously. Gun to my head I wouldn't be able to choose which one gave the stronger "tough mom" performance. Janney is the frontrunner because she's basically the Sam Rockwell of actresses-- amazing but sadly underrated. She deserves to win due to her longevity in the business and how happy she makes everyone around her/everyone who watches anything she's in. But Laurie Metcalf... she came out of nowhere. Go back and watch old episodes of Roseanne and point to the TV and say "hey, you know she's going to be nominated for an Academy Award" and no one would believe you. It was brilliant casting on Greta Gerwig's part and Metcalf gave us all a shock at how great she still is. Give it to either of these lovely ladies and it'll be the right call.
Best Director:
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Get the f**k outta here with that Paul Thomas Anderson nomination. No way. No absolute way does he deserve to be on the list with four other directorial geniuses. Phantom Thread was okay. The direction was very Paul Thomas Anderson-y, but it doesn't mean you should just move aside a couple of really deserved people in order to get his name up there. There's a legitimately good chance that Three Billboards is going to win Best Picture, not just because I think it should. And if it does, its writer/director (who will probably get an award for his own script and by proxy get a few of his actors awards) will be devoid a spot on the Best Director list. Get the hell outta here, Academy. That being said... how awesome is it to see the rest of these names? Two who directed their FIRST films ever. I don't know any of them, but I'm proud of four of them... and Martin McDonagh.
Who's Going to Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Who Deserves to Win: Guillermo Del Toro OR Christopher Nolan
I mean, we saw this with Argo before when the Best Picture of the year's director didn't even get a second look. So, I would honestly say that McDonagh deserves at least a nom. But, for me, it's Del Toro or Nolan's to take. Dunkirk isn't going to get nearly half the love it deserves, but it's a stellar movie. What Nolan did with the constant intensity coupled with the lack of dialogue is superb. I've never really seen a movie (especially a war movie) like it. He's been overlooked several times and he should get more notice for his passion project. Speaking of passion projects and being overlooked-- it's equally Del Toro's time for an Oscar. He was sorely overlooked for Pan's Labyrinth and the man is wholly talented in all aspects of film. The Shape of Water is gorgeous, but it wouldn't have been half of what it is without Del Toro's directorial eye. He deserves the award even if The Shape of Water doesn't win. And he will get it.
Best Animated Feature:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
So... what is it, Academy? You felt too respected? You were TOO separated from the Golden Globes? They're the ones who are supposed to hand out disrespectful nominations in favor of actual good movies. What, you wanted to be the laughing stock of the awards world? I'm just gonna say this right now... a couple of years ago... The Lego Movie not only deserved a nomination... it deserved the win. And it got neither. This year, you have once again snubbed a very good and highly regarded by critics and audience members Lego movie-- Lego Batman Movie. Not only did you piss on the Lego franchise once again... but you gave one of the five spots... to the f**king Boss Baby?! Are you kidding?!
What's Going to Win: Coco
What Deserves to Win: Coco
This isn't even up for discussion. Coco might be Pixar's magnum opus. I thought Inside Out had everything anyone ever possibly needed in a movie and then they come back with Coco. It's PERFECT. It is a perfect movie. It's so perfect it deserves to be up on the Best Picture list instead of relegated to the Animated Movie category. If you haven't seen it... see it. If you didn't like it... stop watching movies because you're clearly going through something that impedes your ability to love. Coco will win.
Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Deserves to Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Get Out, Lady Bird
(I just want to point out how much I love the fact that five of the best movies of the year... were ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYS. Take more chances, Hollywood!!!)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Call Me By Your Name
What Deserves to Win: Logan OR Call Me By Your Name
Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: The Insult
What Deserves to Win: Uhhhh... no idea. Didn't see any of them and this is the one I've read has the best chance.
How Many Categories I'm Guaranteed To Get Correctly: 8/10
Consensus:
Finally... it's a year where the majority of the front-runners and favorites in all categories are the movies that DESERVE to win those categories. There probably will only be an upset (if there is one) in the Best Picture or (and this would have to be super dark horse) the Best Director category. I could see Get Out or Lady Bird taking the Original Screenplay category for both the fact that each movie will probably get overlooked in nearly every other category and this is a category the Academy could give it a little recognition. But, I'm pretty confident in at least 8 of my picks this year. Let's keep this trend going, Hollywood. Keep banking on original content and let writers bring us beautiful stories we've never seen before. And... for old time's sake... bring back Billy Crystal or Steve Martin for one more Oscar hosting gig before we don't get to see them anymore at all.
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