So, last year I had much better luck on predicting the winners. This is something that I'm not necessarily proud of because this means that the Academy has become that predictable. I want to be surprised. I want to expect the period piece drama to win and then the comedy or the horror or the low-budget, yet quirky indie movie to come out on top. I hate the predictability that has become the Oscars. However, this year... while the nominations were standard and not incredibly surprising... the winners of most of the categories are actually pretty hard to choose. So, I'm going to do my best to pick what I think the old farts are going to pick for their favorites this year.
Best Picture:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
What's cool about this year is that nearly every movie nominated for Best Picture deserves to be up there. Last year, there were some good ones and some very obvious ones, but nothing (other than Wolf of Wall Street) really stood out as a movie that would last for years to come. This year is a different story. There are so many good movies, so many underrated and under-seen films this year that it's honestly hard to tell what's going to win. Seven of the eight movies could win and I wouldn't be upset with it at all. The eighth, however, The Theory of Everything, does NOT deserve to be among this list. That spot should've been given to Nightcrawler. I don't necessarily think it would've won, nor do I think Theory is going to win... but it was much more deserved than the film that took its spot.
What's Going To Win: Birdman...or...Boyhood...Um...yeah...Birdman
What Should Win: Birdman or Boyhood or Whiplash or Selma or Grand Budapest
This one is going to be tough. It's about predicting what I think the old farts in the Academy building will select as Best Picture and not what I believe the Best Picture Winner should be. However, hopefully that will be the same. Birdman was my favorite film of the nominations followed very closely by Whiplash and Selma. However, it's not a guarantee to win Best Picture. Boyhood was gaining steam in the BP department and even won the Golden Globe. But, Birdman has essentially won everything else. In the past eleven years, whichever movie wins the Producer's Guild Awards for Best Picture is essentially a lock for BP. Birdman has officially done that. But, remember who the Academy are. They are more likely to take a very small indie film that had a substantial story behind the movie-- the twelve years it took to film it-- and it looks like the more obvious choice. I'm looking at history here, and of course, a little bias, but I'm going with Birdman this time around.
Best Actor:
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Again, any of these guys could win the Gold and I would be fine with it, but there's still someone missing. Yeah, it's Jake Gyllenhaal. Never did I think I'd be picketing for JG to get an Oscar. It wasn't until Nightcrawler that I saw something truly remarkable from the kid. I don't understand what the Academy's recent hard-on for Bradley Cooper is, but he was fine in American Sniper... but JG kicked his acting ass. He should've been in there over Cooper.
Who's Going To Win: Michael Keaton
Who Should Win: Michael Keaton
This category is just as difficult to predict as Best Picture because it comes down to two guys, not just one. You've got Keaton, a Hollywood staple that everyone loved, who dropped out of the limelight for years only to make a triumphant return in an amazing film while delivering a performance we haven't seen from him... maybe ever. Then, there's the bio pic kid-- Eddie Redmayne. I don't want to take anything away from Redmayne, he was beyond incredible in The Theory of Everything, and he's the reason that movie is even watchable. The way he had to transform every piece of himself to become Stephen Hawking is jaw-dropping. He could easily take the gold... and, again, these old geezers in Hollywood that vote for this category eat bio pics up. But, they also love a good comeback. I think Keaton's got the edge on this one.
Best Actress:
Marion Cotillard (Two Days One Night)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
It's nice to see Rosamund Pike get a nomination for Gone Girl even though it was my favorite movie of the year (which actually now might be second favorite to Whiplash... don't quote me on this shit... I'm a fickle critic). But the rest... well, not to take anything away from these extraordinary actresses... but I'm not sure anyone actually cares who wins this one.
Who's Going To Win: Julianne Moore
Who Should Win: Reese Witherspoon
This is also a little bit biased because I haven't actually seen Still Alice and I actually have zero desire to watch it. Watching someone, a linguistics teacher no less, begin to start losing themselves slowly to Alzheimer's is not exactly my idea of a good time. I've seen the trailer a few times and Moore looks pretty good in it, and I've read that she's actually marvelous, but I actually saw Wild and let me tell you Reese Witherspoon's performance is something to behold. Moore probably deserves it, but from what I saw from RW... man, that would be cool if she got some recognition for it.
Best Supporting Actor:
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Robert Duvall may be my favorite actor on that list and who knows how much time he's got left being one of the most underrated actors of many generations. I love that man and I tip my hat to the Academy for recognizing him in a role he deserved to be recognized for. Give that man all the awards to everything. He's one of my favorites truly. But......... yeah, he's not going to win.
Who's Going To Win: J.K. Simmons
Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons
Yeah, hands down, no question is J.K. Simmons going to win this year. And good for him. He's another under-appreciated actor in Hollywood who was relegated to character acting, quirky fathers, and insurance commercials. Not until Whiplash did we get to see the reason J.K. Simmons is actually employed on a regular basis in Hollywood. There's no one else on this list that even stands a chance. And if you still haven't seen Whiplash then you don't know why I'm claiming this as a 100% lock to win, but those of you who have... you probably haven't even read this far because you're already in agreement with me... you don't even need an explanation.
Best Supporting Actress:
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Laura Dern (Wild)
Kiera Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into The Woods)
Hey, look everyone, it's the annual obligatory Meryl Streep nomination. Don't get me wrong here, I love everything about Meryl Streep, but Jesus, can we help anyone else out the way we help out Meryl??? To me, actually, the supporting actress category isn't all that hard to figure out and it isn't all that impressive, either. I mean, Kiera Knightley? Really? She wasn't bad in her role, she just didn't... do... anything in the movie. Laura Dern... yeah, she cries a little and dies a little... but anyone could've done it. I'm actually pretty happy to see Emma Stone on the list. She was a little spark plug in Birdman and it's about time she's getting noticed.
Who's Going To Win: Patricia Arquette
Who Should Win: Uh.... Patricia Arquette?
I mean, yeah, sure she was good and giving twelve years of your life to one project is a lot of effort most people wouldn't put into something, but she did. It's just that while watching Boyhood I never stepped back and went, "damn! Patricia Arquette is killing it!" She was good, but she's got that high pitched whiny voice like someone still hasn't told her that she's a legit actress people pay money to see. So, I don't know... I mean, she was good... I guess she should win... Not a real strong year for supporting actresses I suppose. God, you guys think I'm a total douche misogynist don't you? Get your own blog and bitch about it.
Best Director:
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
Fuck you Academy. Fuck you so hard for this. This is some really messed up shit you pulled with the director category here. You're going to purposefully and knowingly NOT nominate Ava DuVernay for Selma even though you have it nominated for Best Picture, but instead give it to Bennett freaking Miller whose movie ISN'T EVEN NOMINATED FOR BEST PICTURE!!! That is some cold shit, Academy. Like, unforgivable shit.
Who's Going To Win: Richard Linklater
Who Should Win: Richard Linklater
My instinct tells me that I should go with Inarritu because of the ambition he had when filming Birdman as one continuous shot... but Linklater saw that ambition and raised it eleven extra years. What Linklater did was stunning. He committed to a twelve year project, never letting it fade out and put together a comprehensive and amazing film. He had to constantly re-write the script, be constantly updating the times of this boy to when he was filming. The number of ways he should've failed is exponential, but instead he actually filmed a boy growing up and it had something to say. Like Birdman, Boyhood was not a novelty of a film and either director could win it... Linklater should.
Best Animated Feature:
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How To Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
You stabbed me in the back with the DuVernay snub, Academy, but you're twisting it so much by completely freaking ignoring The Lego Movie. Are you serious?? I don't care what kind of weird japanese anime crap film you thought was bold and beautiful... there's no way either of the two last movies were as close to as funny or as poignant as The Lego Movie. I'm starting to think you guys are just dicks.
What's Going To Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2
What Should Win: The Lego Movie
Who cares? It's not The Lego Movie.
Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going To Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
What Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going To Win: Whiplash
What Should Win: Whiplash
How Many Categories I'm Going To Pick Correctly:
I'm Going To Get: 3/9
How Many I Should Get: 9/9
Consesus:
While it didn't feel like an overly extraordinary year for film, the movies and performances recognized for the best in their field is certainly much better. Save for neglecting Nightcrawler, The LEGO Movie, Gone Girl, and Ava DuVernay (you racist bastards!) it's a pretty exciting year for film awards. At least, unlike the last few years, there aren't as many bland movies. They're movies that folks actually want to talk about that actually mean something and have something to say. The last few years have been a bunch of The Theory of Everything's and it's been kinda boring to watch the obvious choices to win. I know the picks here are still a little obvious (I mean, clearly, Grand Budapest isn't going to just sneak by and win Best Picture), but at least there's still a little excitement when it comes to which two of the list are going to win the battle... or is it the war? Eh... go watch The LEGO Movie... or Whiplash.
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