Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Big Peck's Cineflex Awards Edition: Oscar Winner Predictions



Okay, so, the Academy Award Nominations have been released for a couple weeks now and I've held on to writing about them for awhile now.  I had to let them sink in and really reflect on what I wanted to say about them.  So, I'm going to break them down category by category and give you my two cents on how I feel about each.

Best Picture:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

This is a pretty decent list of Best Picture nominees.  There are quite a few great movies on this list that I actually agree are Best Picture worthy.  However, there are a couple that I don't.  Now, I haven't seen Amour yet, but it sucks that it knocked out other worthy movies.  It's a shoo-in to win the Best Foreign Film category, so why did it get nominated twice?  Why did movies like Moonrise Kingdom and The Impossible have to get snubbed so this movie could take its place, not win, but win another category?  Also, (and I will update this once I've seen it) I haven't seen Life of Pi.  There are some real lovers of the book, but I personally hated it and have no desire to see the adaptation.  That being said, I'll always see movies nominated for Best Picture, so we'll have to see.


What's Going To Win: Lincoln
What Should Win: Argo

This was a hard decision to make about what should win.  Because, those who know me know I absolutely LOVED Les Miserables, but I can look past my own bias and see that there are other films out there more worthy of Best Picture.  If comedies stood a chance in Hell, Silver Linings Playbook  would be a great choice.  It was a fantastic movie very deserving.  Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained  and Lincoln were all fantastic movies, each deserving, but it was Argo to me that really stood out as what the Academy should and could consider the Best Picture of 2012.

Now, Lincoln is going to win.  No doubt in my mind.  I say this because, well, it's Spielberg and Daniel Day-Lewis.  It's hard to say Ben Affleck was better than that.  Also, and this has only not happened a handful of times.  Nine times out of ten whoever wins Best Director will win Best Picture.  Well, with Ben Affleck's name (undeservingly) off the list, as well as Tarantino's, Bigelow's and Hooper's... that pretty much tells you who the Academy already knows is the lock.

Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

This is where I smile and tip my hat to the Academy.  This is the perfect list of the five actors with the finest performances in 2012.  Each actor took it to new heights and showed off just exactly what makes them great.  Bradley Cooper showed us he can actually play someone different then cocky douchebag.  Joaquin Phoenix can show us he's not just insane, but knows a thing or two about the acting game.  Denzel Washington showed us that when he wants to he can branch out from his typical Tony Scott-esque written roles.  Hugh Jackman showed us a different side other than Wolverine.  And Daniel Day-Lewis, well... he showed us he's still the best damn actor on the Earth.

Who's Going To Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Should Win: Hugh Jackman

I realize, yes, I have a bias towards Les Miserables.  But, when the hell are we ever going to see a performance that stellar from Hugh Jackman ever again.  The guy put everything he had into the role.  He put all his cards down on the table and came up with a jackpot.  He lost weight, he shaved his head, he sang for three months straight.  He did literally everything in the film and literally blew me away with his performance.  And while I agree that Daniel Day-Lewis was fantastic as Abraham Lincoln... the guy could've done it in his sleep.  It wasn't exactly out of his wheelhouse.  Yes, Bill the Butcher took a lot of method acting.  Even Daniel Plainview was a difficult role.  But, Lincoln...?  I don't think it really took that much other than changing his voice and putting on a lot of make-up.  Don't mistake me and think that I'm saying it was a safe performance, because for anyone else it wouldn't have been.  But, Daniel Day-Lewis is a whole different caliber of actor.  I felt Hugh Jackman was far superior than anyone else this year.

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

I'm not as confident about this category as I am the others.  I haven't seen Amour or The Impossible yet, but the other actresses are definitely right calls from the Academy.  Chastain was fantastic, Jennifer Lawrence, while not really taking on as stressful a role as the rest still does fine work here.  And Wallis... man, for a nine year old was amazing in Beasts.  I wouldn't be too heartbroken if she won, actually.

Who's Going to Win: Jessica Chastain
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain

And even though I haven't seen a few of the other movies, I am confident that Chastain is the most deserved of the Oscar.  Her character, while not overtly complex, is not without her convictions.  I believed Chastain every second she was on screen.  I desperately rooted for her not to fail each instance I knew she would.  I wept with her when she suffered loss and I felt the stress and anxiety that was hardly ever shown to the audience other than when looking into her eyes.  Her performance was fantastic and there is no one more deserving this year than her.

Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) 
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Well, Academy, you almost had it right in this category as well.  However, you failed to recognize the better supporting actor in Django Unchained as Leonardo DiCaprio.  Why do you hate him so much Academy?  What can he possibly do to garner your respect?  Change his voice? Done.  Change his appearance?  Done.  Have every movie released by him be fantastic?  Done!  Why would he be so overlooked when he's truly one of the best actors of this generation?  Other than that... great choices.  Alan Arkin is always a great choice and it was here again.  Philip Seymour Hoffman showed me some of the best acting I've ever seen from him... ever.  Robert De Niro was great maybe not so much because he actually showed us he's gotten bored with stupid comedies with Ben Stiller, but because the guy used to be an amazing actor.  And, let's not forget, Tommy Lee Jones.  Yes, he's a prick.  But, he stole the show in Lincoln.

Who's Going To Win: Tommy Lee Jones
Who Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones 

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams (The Master)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Sally Field (Lincoln)

Okay, this one perplexes me just a tad.  I understand most of the picks.  Amy Adams was fantastic in The Master which just goes to perplex further that with all three of the main stars of that movie getting nominations, well-deserved nominations, then why was the movie so... meh?  Anne Hathaway brought the house down with her portrayal of Fantine.  I have yet to see The Sessions but the general consensus is Helen Hunt was great in it.  Now, this is the one that confuses me... Jacki Weaver.  Okay, yeah, sure, she was... good... in her film, but was she great?  When you walked out of Silver Linings Playbook did you think to yourself, "man, that mom was so good, she's gonna win?"  No.  So, now another fantastic performance was overlooked.  Both Eponine (Samantha Barks) from Les Miserables and half the cast of Moonrise Kingdom were overlooked in favor of a role that any middle aged actress could've played. Sally Field was also remarkably annoying in Lincoln, but that just means she did a great job.

Who's Going to Win: Anne Hathaway
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway

This is a no-brainer.  I know I just bitched about Jacki Weaver getting a spot, but really the five nominations should've looked thusly:
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
She was beyond amazing in that film.  If you didn't try to hold back tears during her "I Dreamed A Dream" rendition, then you are a robot.  A soulless, lifeless robot that wasn't given a chip implanted in your brain that signifies emotion.  This is a 100%, no doubt in my mind, guarantee.  

Best Director:
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

This is the category that angered me the most, Academy.  There are only two directors that deserve to be on this list.  Ang Lee... eh.  I haven't seen Pi, but I can already tell you just by looking at the film that he MIGHT deserve to be on here for the ability to film an unfilmable book.  Zeitlin... no.  While he did make a beautiful movie, I wouldn't call him the best director.  O. Russell, yeah.  Okay.  He deserves to be here.  Haneke... no.  This just goes to show you that it's a bunch of old men in the Academy with no eye for what actually makes a movie or a director superbly great.  And, obviously Spielberg will always deserve to be on the list.  But who got robbed?  Well, Katheryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty.  Quentin Tarantino for Django.  Oh, wait, how about the best director of the last five years, Ben friggin' Affleck?

Who's Going To Win: Steven Spielberg
Who Should Win: Ben Affleck

I don't take anything away from Spielberg.  He is obviously a fine director and he's proven himself time and time again.  He's just gotten a little stale as of late.  War Horse, Tintin, and even moments of Lincoln.  But, Affleck has now proven himself a third time that he's a competent director who knows what to do behind a camera.  And he gets snubbed for it???  This is how I know Lincoln is going to walk away with the most gold.  Spielberg isn't going to just win director and turn around to see something else get the Best Picture trophy.  It's already been spoiled by the Academy.  All we can do is watch it happen.

Best Animated Feature:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph


Okay, Academy, I'll let you have this last one.  You did it right once more.  I've grown tired of them nominating the Pixar movie and then throwing out random shitty other cartoons just to fill up the space.  This time, Pixar has a lot up against it.  Brave may not actually be the Best Animated Feature.  In fact, I've seen all of the films and they're all great. I don't know if I truly liked one of them more than the other and I'm honestly stumped on which one will win.

What's Going To Win: Brave (?)  This is a safe guess, I suppose?
What Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Wreck-It Ralph just really stands out for me this year.  While Frankenweenie was extremely creative, it didn't pack that long-lasting punch for me.  ParaNorman was a fun horror movie for kids, a movie that broke a lot of boundaries, I believe, but I still don't think it was up to the caliber of Ralph.  The Pirates! was actually the closest to being my favorite animated movie of the year.  It's incredibly fun and hilarious.  And Brave, well, while I thoroughly enjoyed it and I tip my hat to Pixar again... it didn't feel like a Pixar movie.  It felt like a Dreamworks vehicle and Wreck-It Ralph had that true Pixar feel.  That's why I feel like it should win.

Consensus...
It looks like it's going to be another Spielberg year for the Oscars.  He tends to sweep it up every few years or so when he makes some big historical epic to cleanse his palate of all of the "fun" movies he makes in between.  But wouldn't you love it if it won nothing big?  Like, I have this little thought in the back of my mind that either Argo or Silver Linings Playbook could steal it away.  It's highly possible, though the Academy doesn't have a penchant for shocking viewers.  But, I'd love to be wrong in (almost) every category and see either of those two movies steal everything away that Spielberg holds dear.  If there was a way that DGA, WGA, SAG, etc., members could write in winners on their ballot, I have a feeling Ben Affleck would still have a decent shot.  But, February 23rd will come and Lincoln will take home the statue and we'll wait for the next movie that isn't necessarily the best movie of the year next year, but one that just has that feel of an Academy favorite to win once more.

1 comment:

  1. Okay, where to begin?

    Best Picture: like you, I have seen all except for Life of Pi. I want to agree with you on Amour, however, without having seen it, I don't want to make a hasty judgement. Two years ago I was delighted to see Toy Story 3 have a chance at both animated AND best picture. If Amour is deserving of both, then I don't mind it being here twice. I have to agree the Lincoln is a shoo-in. And it's very deserving. Stellar acting and a story line that went far beyond "four score and seven years ago". To be honest, I wouldn't mind if any of these movies caused an upset. Of the seven I've seen, all are deserving of the gold.

    Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis is a god. Every single day, thousands of extras and character actors get down on their knees and pray to Daniel Day-Lewis in hopes that someday they can be half the actor he is. That being said, I have to agree with you again on who should win. I didn't like Hugh Jackman's singing voice. At all. But that had no effect whatsoever on his performance. He WAS Jean Valjean. If any other actor had sung with Jackman's voice, I don't think I would have loved it so much. But he was able to move me so much that his singing voice didn't matter. THAT'S acting.

    Best Actress: Jessica Chastain is the new Amy Adams. I'm calling it right now. She will be nominated every other year and be deserving of it every single time. It is a shame that she will likely win before Adams, but like I said, completely deserving. Jennifer Lawrence was flawless and I'm happy to see that typecasting will never be an issue for her. Wallis was also incredible and was such a large presence on screen. Although I've not been able to see The Impossible, I am so confident in Watts' abilities that I have no doubt she killed it.

    Best Supporting Actor: Poor Poor Leo. He absolutely nails his role (the dude cuts his hand in a fit of acting passion and continues the fucking scene and makes it BETTER!!!). But that aside, I enjoyed this list. Arkin was great but he already won for the same role in Little Miss Sunshine. Tommy Lee Jones was fantastic. Robert De Niro reminded me he could act. Hans Landa...I mean Christoph Waltz was one of the more enjoyable aspects of Django. And Hoffman is incredible in everything. I could see Waltz upsetting Tommy Lee Jones simply because that's what happened at the Globes. (But fear not, his "pissed I didn't win" face will be nominated next year).

    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway. No question. No one else even matters. Hathaway. But allow me to agree with you on Jackie Weaver. She was great. But not Oscar nom great. Samantha Barks did one of the hardest movies she could do and she did it with no movie experience. She should have taken Weaver's spot. No question.

    Best Director: Seriously Academy?? Seriously?! What the hell? Tarantino. Bigelow. Hooper. AFFLECK! These are the names that should be there. I know that I am biased towards Les Mis, but Tom Hooper did something that has NEVER been done before. Isn't that what the Academy should be rewarding. I understand why he wouldn't win. But the man took a gigantic risk and, in my opinion, it paid off. Ben Affleck, as a devout watcher of the Oscars, I apologize on their behalf for their asinine mistake. However, I know I will see your name here soon.

    Best Animated Feature: I have actually only seen Brave and Wreck It Ralph. But Ralph was the far superior film in my opinion.

    Consensus: They almost had it right. And come Oscar night, expect to see tears in my eyes when Annie Hathaway accepts her award. Why? Because when Annie Hathaway cries, YOU cry. Those are the rules.

    ReplyDelete