After #Oscarssowhite, the old fucks behind the Academy Awards decided to step up their game a little bit. They might have even over-compensated (because seriously... Hidden Figures wasn't that good). So, the score from last year is 8 out of 9 picks I secured. Okay, 7.5 picks seeings as how I couldn't decide between The Revenant and Spotlight for Best Picture and Spotlight won. But in a year that released a cavalcade of seriously underwhelming movies... we did up the diversity factor. It wasn't just a white-washed moviefest in 2016, even though the movie with the most nominations ONLY white people are going to enjoy. So, we made more movies starring and about people of color in order to shove something large and pointy up the asses of the Academy and we elected a literal cheese puff into office. We are a seriously indecisive and dumb ass country. Anyway, here are my picks for this year's Academy Awards in case you're putting any money down in Vegas and you want some rock solid picks.
Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By The Sea
Moonlight
Like I said, the movies this year were a bit underwhelming (not like the year Slumdog Millionaire won or the year The Artist won-- seriously go check out the nominees for those years) but the Academy did a pretty good job of selecting the best movies of the year. I wouldn't have nominated Hidden Figures, and replaced it with A Monster Calls, The Nice Guys or Don't Think Twice, but it was nice to see Hell or High Water make the list. All of these films minus Hidden Figures and Lion made my top ten movies of the year list. And while all of these movies were great in their own right, there are really only two clear cut favorites/front-runners in my mind.
What's Going to Win: La La Land
What Should Win: Moonlight
I'm not trying to take anything away from La La Land because it's a great movie. But, come one Academy. One year after everyone hashtagged you about how much you DON'T appreciate black people, they give you a movie about a GAY BLACK DUDE. It couldn't be more simple to select a winner. Remember a couple years ago when there was a movie about SLAVERY and you were like-- uhhhhhhh.... yeahhhhhh.... we should probs get on that one. Here's another one! In all seriousness, though, Moonlight was legitimately the best movie of 2016. While The Nice Guys was definitely my favorite movie, Moonlight was the absolute best. It's a beautiful film that deserves all of the recognition it is getting and doesn't really deserve to lose out to a movie with two signing and dancing white people whose only source of conflict is that they haven't 'made it' in Hollywood yet. It's going to go to La La Land, and if it does, it's certainly deserving. But, Moonlight is the movie that should be crushing all of the compettion around it. However, the only other times a movie has received 14 nominations like LLL has... they were Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and Titanic, so....
Best Actor:
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortenson (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Certainly a decent year when it comes to acting. Notice it's primarily white, but then again all of the fantastic stars of Moonlight all had basically supporting roles. If I could combine all four of the supporting roles in that film into one nomination, it would be a shoo-in. This category was pretty well represented other than the fact that Michael Keaton got stiffed for The Founder. It was a bit of a quiet movie that didn't get a ton of publicity, so it kind of fell by the wayside, but he deserves to be up there just as much as any of the others. In fact, I'd probably remove Ryan Gosling from the list in favor of Keaton. Not that Gosling wasn't great in his role, it just wasn't as genuinely impressive as Keaton's was.
Who's Going to Win: Casey Affleck
Who Deserves to Win: Affleck OR Denzel
It's a cold day in movie Hell when anyone has a shot against Denzel Washington. He's the Meryl Streep of the acting category (more for the fact that he's better than all... not so much the amount he's won which is astoundingly small). But, damn, if Casey Affleck didn't kill it in Manchester by the Sea. His performance was so subtle, and yet in your face. It was a remarkable performance from someone who looks like he's about to be outed as a complete prick. Lifestyle choices aside... he's definitely the frontrunner for this category. If there was a surprise and Denzel took it, he'd be MORE than deserving. But, if Affleck's latest controversies don't catch up to him and influence the voters, look for him to take it.
Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Ohhhhhhhhhhh Jesus. Lookie there. It's Meryl Stree once again getting the nom. The only surprise about this list is that Jennifer Lawrence finally missed a year. Unfortunately for her the only film she was in this year was the pretty creepy and incredibly underwhelming Passengers. I'm sad to say that I've only actually seen one of these films, so I can't exactly speak to who should be on the list and who shouldn't. I mean, it's pretty clear that Meryl isn't going to win this year and it's really only because she is the best actress ever that she made the cut. But, the only names I can see missing from this list are Annette Benning in 20th Century Women and Amy Adams in Arrival or Nocturnal Animals.
Who's Going to Win: Emma Stone
Who Deserves to Win: Natalie Portman
Again, I haven't seen all the movies, and I haven't even actually seen Jackie, but everything I've heard/read suggests that Portman deserves this more than anyone else. However, due to poor box office performance, she lost the steam she needed in order to win her second statue. Emma Stone has gained serious momentum over the last month, and yes, the last song she performs in La La Land all but solidifies the fact that she's probably going to take this one.
Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Another solid list of actors on this list. I can't think of anyone that has been neglected for this category. It is nice to see that the Oscars gave the bird to the Golden Globes and nominated the actor who truly deserved to be nominated in this category from that film-- Michael Shannon. It was sort of strange to give Aaron Taylor-Johnson the nom for the GG's when it was Shannon who really stole the show. I will say that though it wasn't the toughest year to narrow down the best performances, the Academy is spot on with this category.
Who's Going to Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Deserves to Win: Mahershala Ali
Jeff Bridges was fantastic in Hell or High Water, but it wasn't deserving of the top spot. I look at it more as the "quirky old man" award, like when Alan Arkin won for Little Miss Sunshine. Lucas Hedges gave a stellar performance and Dev Patel made a deal with someone because, while he was amazing in Lion, he was definitely a lead role, not a supporting one. But Ali was perfect in his role in Moonlight. He's only in it for a good twenty minutes or so, but he commands the screen in every second the camera is on him. I really hope that there's a huge upset and Moonlight takes the majority of the awards. That would really show 'em! (Who? I have no idea.)
Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Whoooooaaaaa Academy. Looks like our #oscarssowhite hashtags really got to you this year, huh? Three African-American actresses nominated in the same category with only two white chicks?! Are you apologizing, compensating for something, or have you actually figured it out? This was another great list, but the one perplexing nominee, to me, is Spencer. She was fine in Hidden Figures, but didn't even come close to something mindblowing. If anything, Taraji P. Henson is the one who deserves to have her name on this list. She blew me away. Spencer's role, while good, was a very small background role that didn't really deserve a spot on the list.
Who's Going to Win: Viola Davis
Who Deserves to Win: Viola freakin' Davis
Dude. There is NO way anyone else on this list takes the gold this year. Viola Davis gave the best performance in a movie hands down. I'm not just talking actresses. I'm talking any movie with anyone in it this entire year... Viola Davis is the Queen. If there was to be an upset-- which there won't be-- Michelle Williams is a distant second. While her role is small, the last scene between her and Casey Affleck will chill you to the bone. (Have I used enough cliches yet?)And I have to do a shout out to my girl Nicole Kidman. Heartbreaking! Had me near tears. But guess what lil homies-- Viola Davis brought the muhf**kin house DOWN! Viola Davis WILL take this category. No question.
Best Director:
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
So far this has been the most controversial category. A lot of people still haven't forgiven Mel Gibson for his anti-Jewish/anti-woman/anti-everyone rants back in the day. Yet, we're not up in arms about Casey Affleck?? (Google it... he's most likely a piece of shit). I probably wouldn't have changed anything about these five other than maybe tossed in Denzel again for the double nom whammy. What he did with Fences... how he made a theatrical movie feel like you're sitting and watching a real-life stage play was phenomenal. Other than that, everyone deserves to be here... including Mel.
Who's Going to Win: Damien Chazelle
Who Deserves to Win: Barry Jenkins
This one is TOUGH. The Academy has been very random with their Best Director winners the past few years. Most of the time if a movie was going to win Best Picture, the person who Directed that movie would always win. This hasn't been the case lately. However, I am sticking with the format of old because while Barry Jenkins would be the new choice if La La Land takes Best Picture, Hollywood loves musical movies about Hollywood. And, what he did is very impressive, especially the opening single-shot sequence of the film. He's almost assuredly going to win, but I'd still give it to Jenkins. Moonlight forever.
Best Animated Feature:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Is it or is it not just a tad bit shocking that Pixar didn't make the cut? I mean, I've only seen two of these films and while I've heard very good things about Kubo and I've even heard rumblings about The Red Turtle, not only have I heard literally nothing about My Life as a Zucchini, but Finding Dory was a fantastic sequel. Other than the Toy Story sequels, Pixar hasn't really been the gold standard for their sequels with Cars and Monsters University. But, I would say that Finding Dory certainly deserved a spot here. However, it is nice to see that Pixar isn't entirely infallible. If it has enough good competition, it isn't exactly always a shoo-in.
What's Going to Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
What Deserves to Win: Zootopia
Like I said... I've only seen two of the five films nominated, but Zootopia was brilliant. The reason I believe it doesn't stand a chance is that it came out wayyyy back in March of 2016. Too much time (almost an entire year) has gone by and people have forgotten the impact that film had not just on kids but on everyone. Then again, I've heard nothing but great, positive buzz about Kubo and how spectacular it is supposed to be. It's actually been enough that I've gone from "meh... looks decent, but not my thing" to "maybe I should actually check this one out." Also... don't discount Moana. If the Academy really wants Lin Manuel-Miranda to EGOT... this could be the sleeper pick.
Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: La La Land
What Deserves to Win: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going to Win: Moonlight
What Deserves to Win: Moonlight
Best Foreign Language Film:
What's Going to Win: Toni Erdmann
What Deserves to Win: Probably that. Didn't see any of them. That's just the only one I know people are tuggin' their dicks to.
Chance of Lin-Manuel Miranda Being the Youngest Person to EGOT: 60%
How Many Categories I'm Guaraneed to Pick Correctly: 7/10
Consensus:
If we look at the track record of past Academy Awards, then we know that this year is going to be a La La Land sweep. Only twice before has there been 14 nominations for a single film in a single year and that film normally walks away with the majority of the categories they're up for. Crazily enough, La La Land is able to creep into music, sound, costume design, acting, directing, writing and it's all stellar. If it wins each of these categories, it's certainly deserving. I would just love to see Moonlight, the best movie of last year and the riskiest move that Academy has made in a long time. Sure, they gave Hidden Figures the apology nominations this year and a lot more credit than it actually deserved... but Moonlight deserves every category and it's only guaranteed one is Adapted Screenplay. 2016 was a lame duck year in almost every cinematic aspect, so I'm expecting good things from 2017. However, when that happens, a lot more movies miss the cut and a lot more people are left without any recognition (and the Academy has a very strange way of awkwardly making sure these are generally people of color). Every movie this year, while not super-Scorese/Spielberg-exciting, were all very deserving and whoever takes an award in each of the categories is definitely more deserving than some of the people who have taken the gold in the past.
No comments:
Post a Comment