Alright... wasn't too on point last year on who was going to win and this year is an even bigger crapshoot. I mean, even the Best Picture category could honestly go to half the nominees. There were many, many great performances and there's really no clear winner in hardly any category. So, I guess I have just as much of a guess as anyone. So, here's what the Cineflex believes will win each category.
Best Picture:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
What a vanilla year it was for movies. Yes, there are a few on here that were genuinely good films, but not all of them I believe earned a spot on the list. Inside Llewyn Davis, I thought, was better than Philomena, but it was a quaint little film and the Academy are a bunch of old biddies that only put The Wolf of Wall Street on there for fear of flak they would receive from moviegoers. Scorsese was also probably a big influence just by having his name attached to it.
What's Going To Win: 12 Years A Slave
What Should Win: Gravity
Okay, so The Wolf of Wall Street was my favorite movie of the year, but there ain't no chance in Hell they're going to choose a movie like that. Nebraska and Her were quiet, but fantastic films, especially the former which was an incredible low-budget film. The three front-runners of the group, however, are American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years A Slave. Any one of them could win and it wouldn't be a surprise. While American Hustle was a very good movie, I just don't think it was the best film of the year. I'll actually be very disappointed if 12 Years wins because it's a manipulative movie that was MADE to win Best Picture. That's it. No other reason for the film's existence. It's not a bad movie, but it's goal from the very beginning was to beat out anything else for Best Picture. The true best movie of the year was Gravity. It's visual effects were stunning, the performances were amazing, and it was the most tense I've been in a theater in a good long while. Movies like that are the reasons we go to movies.
Best Actor:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
This is a year where anyone of these guys could win and it would be deserved. I mean, this is a category that was so stacked that Tom freakin' Hanks didn't even make the cut for two movies where he could've (and should've) been nominated. Congrats to anyone who takes home the gold.
Who's Going To Win: Matthew McConaughey
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Let's face it... Leo needs that win. The guy puts out Academy Award winning movies and performances year after year after year. He will eventually get the win, but it's crazy that he's even had to wait this long. The guy is one of the best actors in Hollywood. Yes, I understand McConaughey has had a recent resurgence in his films from the rom-com pit he was trapped in for so long, but Leo was insanely good! The other nominees were great, but it's time Leo got the nod. There's even a slight chance that due to his old age that Dern could take the W, but I think big Mattie is a lock.
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Are any of these names that surprising? Yeah, they were all good in their respective films, but they're pretty much the Best Actress staples of Hollywood. Didn't have to think too hard outside the box for these nominees. It's a tough race, and it looks like Streep's obligatory nomination is still in tact, but a winner may be a little bit tougher to choose.
Who's Going To Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Should Win: Sandra Bullock
Hear me out on this one. Okay, I understand that Blanchett's performance was amazing in Blue Jasmine, but I haven't seen it yet. I have, however, seen Gravity and Bullock's performance was something beyond incredible. I have never been a fan of Sandra Bullock, and even I was won over by her portrayal of a scared and alone astronaut floating through the vastness of space with limited oxygen. The other three... they really don't have a chance here. Blanchett is ultimately a lock for this category, but I'd love to see Bullock pull it out.
Best Supporting Actor:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
I'd have to say minus the Bradley Cooper nomination, the Best Supporting Actor category is just as strong as the Best Actor category. Everyone turned in outstanding performances. There is something special about the Best Supporting Category that, for the last few years, has been reserved for outstanding villain portrayals. Fassbender would fit that role here, or even Abdi, but it doesn't look like either will take it this year.
Who's Going To Win: Jared Leto
Who Should Win: Jared Leto
How sad is it that the lead singer of a shitty band was one of the best actors of 2013? Abdi, for his first movie, turned in one Hell of a performance as the leader of the Somali pirates. Jonah Hill was amazing, but he's just too much of a wild card to win. It's Leto that is the clear winner here. No one else really has a chance. And while Cooper was good in his role, it wasn't anything remarkable like the other four aforementioned nominees. Let's give it to Leto, even though he's a bit of a stain on American entertainment.
Best Supporting Actress:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years A Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Meh. Could there be a less interesting five people to be nominated for Best Supporting Actress?? The problem here is, looking back on all the films released, I can't think of anyone left out. There just weren't a lot of roles that stood out for supporting women. And while I believe there is a lock for this category, it's not like last year's Anne Hathaway lock.
Who's Going To Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Who Should Win: June Squibb
Haha! Yeah, sure, whatever. Squibb was hilarious in Nebraska! I know none of you saw the movie, but she cracked me up! Nothing against Nyong'o, but I just had such a problem with 12 Years A Slave. I mean, how did that movie manipulate all the Academy heads so effectively and The Butler just kind of came and went? I mean, at least that shit had Oprah! They were both Oscar bait movies with Oscar bait performances. I wouldn't actually mind of Jennifer Lawrence won. I know she won last year for Actress, but she was amazingly awful in American Hustle. I couldn't stand her character. That's the sign of a great actress. Also, considering that most of her dialogue was improvised adds a little bit of umph to the role.
Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Safe picks all around. Actually, I take that back. I really like that Alexander Payne got the nom over other likely and safe choices like Spike Jonze or Paul Greengrass or the Coen Brothers (who really deserved to get nominated). But, the rest were very safe picks because 2013 was a very safe year for film.
Who's Going To Win: Steve McQueen
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
I'm just playing the odds here. More times than not, the film that wins Best Picture is also attached to the person who wins Best Director. So, if my prediction that 12 Years is going to win, then maniuplative puppeteer Steve McQueen will also get the win. However, what Cuaron did with Gravity is unparalleled. It's never been done before. It is the most visually amazing and stimulating film I've ever seen. It beat the small blue dick right off of Avatar. He's the most deserved to win, but, alas, I feel as though he will be overlooked.
Other Predictions:
Best Animated Film:
What's Going To Win: Frozen
What Should Win: Frozen
Best Original Screenplay:
What's Going To Win: Her
What Should Win: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay:
What's Going To Win: 12 Years A Slave
What Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street
Consensus...
It looks like the year of the slave. Wait... can I say that? It's my blog, screw it. If it were me running the Oscars, the nominations and winners would look much different. Leo would have a statue, the best movie would actually win best movie. But, a lot like 2012, it was such a bland year for films. Nothing that gritty or overwhelming came out. There were hardly any locks this year for winners. I've seen a list of a lot of films coming out this year... and let's hope we get, at least, one or two movies that remind us why going to the movies is the greatest thing to do.
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